Empirical evaluation of agricultural resilience to climate change: an application to the Indian state of Odisha

Abstract

The escalating adversities of climate change increasingly jeopardise agriculture in coastal Indian states like Odisha. The significance of the agriculture sector for the state necessitates effectively mitigating the adverse climatic impacts. Strengthening the resilience of agriculture has been widely acknowledged as one of the most effective strategies for mitigating negative climatic impacts. Framing and implementing essential resilience-enhancing measures depends on a comprehensive preliminary assessment of existing resilience. This study estimates agricultural resilience to climate change in Odisha by constructing district-level composite indicators. The Principal Component Analysis and Analytic Hierarchy Process are employed to assign weights to a multidimensional set of indicators and aggregate them into composite indicators. In addition, the Cluster Analysis is employed to identify heterogeneity among the districts in terms of their agricultural resilience. The study finds that the coastal districts in the state have the lowest agricultural resilience, which may be attributed to the higher vulnerability of these districts to a number of climatic risks. The composite indicators further highlight the need for region-specific interventions. Similarly, the interplay of multiple social and environmental factors is found to influence resilience, underscoring crucial implications for public decision-making.