{"title":"Cumulative effects of meteorological factors on low-flow change in the upper Yellow River","authors":"Xungui Li, Yi Tian, Meiqing Yang, Shaobo Wang","doi":"10.1007/s00704-024-05137-9","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p>Climate change significantly impacts water cycle processes and water resource management in the upper Yellow River (UYR), China. Understanding the influence of meteorological factors on low-flow changes is crucial, but the optimal number of antecedent days and the specific contributions of different factors remain unclear. In this study, we use a structural equation model and path analysis to dissect the direct and indirect effects of selected meteorological factors (daily precipitation, P; average temperature, AT; average wind velocity, AWV; average relative humidity, ARH; and total radiation, TR) on four low-flow indices in the UYR. We employ data from 1958 to 2017, collected from six meteorological stations and eight hydrological stations above Lanzhou hydrological station. Our findings reveal that: (1) meteorological factors have varying direct and indirect impacts on low-flow changes at corresponding and cumulative scales. For instance, at the corresponding scale, P, AT, AWV, ARH, and TR have direct impacts of 42%, 54%, 74%, 79%, and 59%, respectively. At the cumulative scale, these values change to 67%, 59%, 67%, 64%, and 60%, respectively. (2) Cumulative effects of meteorological factors enhance the significance and goodness of fit of the analysis model, decreasing residual path coefficients and elevating the contribution of independent variables to the model. (3) The dominant components of meteorological factors affecting low-flow changes differ between corresponding and cumulative scales, explaining the variations in direct and indirect impacts. These insights are valuable for sustainable water resource management in drought-prone regions with water scarcity.</p>","PeriodicalId":22945,"journal":{"name":"Theoretical and Applied Climatology","volume":"96 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.8000,"publicationDate":"2024-08-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Theoretical and Applied Climatology","FirstCategoryId":"89","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-024-05137-9","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q3","JCRName":"METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
Climate change significantly impacts water cycle processes and water resource management in the upper Yellow River (UYR), China. Understanding the influence of meteorological factors on low-flow changes is crucial, but the optimal number of antecedent days and the specific contributions of different factors remain unclear. In this study, we use a structural equation model and path analysis to dissect the direct and indirect effects of selected meteorological factors (daily precipitation, P; average temperature, AT; average wind velocity, AWV; average relative humidity, ARH; and total radiation, TR) on four low-flow indices in the UYR. We employ data from 1958 to 2017, collected from six meteorological stations and eight hydrological stations above Lanzhou hydrological station. Our findings reveal that: (1) meteorological factors have varying direct and indirect impacts on low-flow changes at corresponding and cumulative scales. For instance, at the corresponding scale, P, AT, AWV, ARH, and TR have direct impacts of 42%, 54%, 74%, 79%, and 59%, respectively. At the cumulative scale, these values change to 67%, 59%, 67%, 64%, and 60%, respectively. (2) Cumulative effects of meteorological factors enhance the significance and goodness of fit of the analysis model, decreasing residual path coefficients and elevating the contribution of independent variables to the model. (3) The dominant components of meteorological factors affecting low-flow changes differ between corresponding and cumulative scales, explaining the variations in direct and indirect impacts. These insights are valuable for sustainable water resource management in drought-prone regions with water scarcity.
期刊介绍:
Theoretical and Applied Climatology covers the following topics:
- climate modeling, climatic changes and climate forecasting, micro- to mesoclimate, applied meteorology as in agro- and forestmeteorology, biometeorology, building meteorology and atmospheric radiation problems as they relate to the biosphere
- effects of anthropogenic and natural aerosols or gaseous trace constituents
- hardware and software elements of meteorological measurements, including techniques of remote sensing