Present and future climate of the Yangtze River Delta region: analysis of the CMIP6 HighResMIP simulations

IF 2.8 4区 地球科学 Q3 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES
Ping Yi, Guoxing Chen, Xu Tang
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Abstract

Global warming is incurring diverse climate changes across different regimes, where high-resolution models provide valuable insights of the regional climate changes for guiding social adaptation and mitigation. Thus, this study is aimed to investigate the capability of high-resolution models in simulating the historical climate (1980–2014) over the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) region, and examine the possible regional climate change in the near future (2031–2050). Data from the highresSST-present and highresSST-future experiments of 5 CMIP6 HighResMIP models (FGOALS-f3-H, HiRAM-SIT-HR, NICAM16-8S, MRI-AGCM3-2-S, and MRI-AGCM3-2-H) were analyzed together with the daily station observations by China Meteorological Administration. Results show that the models generally well simulate the regional means and extreme events of the daily-mean temperature and precipitation over the YRD region for the historical period. The temperature is underestimated in the southern YRD (especially in summer and autumn), causing underestimated meridional gradient. In contrast, the precipitation spatial distribution closely matches observations in all seasons, showing a marked improvement over results from low-resolution models. For the near-future period, the daily-mean temperature is projected to increase by 1.4 ℃, which nearly persists throughout the year and is only slightly milder in winter. The daily-mean precipitation may increase by 0.2 mm day−1 (~ 6%), with the largest increase in summer (0.4 mm day−1) and a slight decrease in winter. Meanwhile, the occurrences of extreme hot events and heavy-precipitation events are increased across the YRD region. Given the substantial implications of these possible imminent changes, more effort is warranted to reduce model uncertainties for enhanced validation.

Abstract Image

长江三角洲地区现在和未来的气候:CMIP6 HighResMIP 模拟分析
全球变暖正在引起不同制度下的多种气候变化,而高分辨率模式为区域气候变化提供了有价值的见解,以指导社会适应和减缓气候变化。因此,本研究旨在探讨高分辨率模式在模拟长江三角洲地区历史气候(1980-2014 年)方面的能力,并研究近期未来(2031-2050 年)可能发生的区域气候变化。研究分析了 5 个 CMIP6 HighResMIP 模式(FGOALS-f3-H、HiRAM-SIT-HR、NICAM16-8S、MRI-AGCM3-2-S 和 MRI-AGCM3-2-H)的高分辨率 SST-现在和高分辨率 SST-未来实验数据,以及中国气象局的日站观测数据。结果表明,这些模式总体上较好地模拟了历史时期长三角地区日平均气温和降水量的区域平均值和极端事件。长三角南部(尤其是夏秋季)的气温被低估,导致经向梯度被低估。相比之下,降水的空间分布与各季的观测结果非常吻合,与低分辨率模式的结果相比有明显改善。在近未来时段,预计日平均气温将上升 1.4 ℃,这一变化几乎持续全年,仅在冬季略微温和。日平均降水量可能增加 0.2 毫米/天-1(约 6%),夏季增幅最大(0.4 毫米/天-1),冬季略有减少。同时,整个长三角地区的极端高温事件和强降水事件的发生率也会增加。考虑到这些可能即将发生的变化的重大影响,需要做出更多努力来减少模式的不确定性,以加强验证。
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来源期刊
Theoretical and Applied Climatology
Theoretical and Applied Climatology 地学-气象与大气科学
CiteScore
6.00
自引率
11.80%
发文量
376
审稿时长
4.3 months
期刊介绍: Theoretical and Applied Climatology covers the following topics: - climate modeling, climatic changes and climate forecasting, micro- to mesoclimate, applied meteorology as in agro- and forestmeteorology, biometeorology, building meteorology and atmospheric radiation problems as they relate to the biosphere - effects of anthropogenic and natural aerosols or gaseous trace constituents - hardware and software elements of meteorological measurements, including techniques of remote sensing
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