Assessment of species migration patterns in forest ecosystems of Tamil Nadu, India, under changing climate scenarios

Abstract

Climate change is increasingly recognized as a critical factor driving shifts in the distribution of dominant tree species within various forest ecosystems, including evergreen, deciduous, and thorn forests. These shifts pose significant threats to biodiversity and the essential ecosystem services that forests provide. In Tamil Nadu, India, where forest ecosystems are integral to both ecological balance and local livelihoods, there is an urgent need to predict potential changes in species distributions under future climate scenarios to inform effective conservation strategies. This study addresses this need by utilizing the MaxEnt species distribution model to assess the habitat suitability of dominant tree species in these forest types. The analysis spans current conditions (baseline period 1985–2014) and future projections (2021–2050) under the SSP2-4.5 emissions scenario, leveraging bioclimatic variables at a 1 km resolution. Key climatic factors such as annual mean temperature, precipitation of the driest month, and precipitation seasonality were identified as major drivers of habitat suitability, particularly in the Eastern and Western Ghats of Tamil Nadu. Model projections suggest a potential decrease in suitable habitat area by 32% for evergreen species and 18% for deciduous species, whereas thorn forest species might experience a 71% increase in suitable area. These findings underscore the critical need for targeted conservation actions to mitigate anticipated habitat losses and bolster the resilience of these vital forest ecosystems in the face of ongoing climate change.