High-resolution projections of future FWI conditions for Portugal according to CMIP6 future climate scenarios

IF 2.8 4区 地球科学 Q3 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES
Susana Cardoso Pereira, Nuno Monteiro, Ricardo Vaz, David Carvalho
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Abstract

Wildfires are catastrophes of natural origin or initiated by human activities with high disruptive potential. "Portugal, located in western Iberia, has recently experienced several large fire events, including megafires, due to a combination of factors such as orography, vegetation, climate, and socio-demographic conditions that contribute to fuel accumulation.". One approach to studying fire danger is to use fire weather indices that are commonly used to quantify meteorological conditions that can lead to fire ignition and spread. This study aims to provide high-resolution (~ 6 km) future projections of the Fire Weather Index (FWI) for Portugal using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, forced by the Max Planck Institute (MPI) model from the CMIP6 suite, under three emission scenarios (SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP58.5) for the present period (1995–2014) and two future periods (2046–2065 and 2081–2100). The results show good agreement between FWI and its subcomponents from the WRF and reanalysis. The modelled FWI reproduced the climatological distribution of fire danger Projections indicate an increase in days with very high to extreme fire danger (FWI > 38) across all scenarios and time frames, with the southern and northeastern regions experiencing the most significant changes. The southern and northeastern parts of the territory experienced the largest changes, indicating significant changes between the scenarios and regions. This study suggests that FWI and its subcomponents should be investigated further. Our results highlight the importance of creating new adaptation measures, especially in the areas most at risk, prepared in advance by different players and authorities, so that the increasing risk of wildfires can be mitigated in the future.

Abstract Image

根据 CMIP6 未来气候情景对葡萄牙未来 FWI 条件的高分辨率预测
野火是源于自然或由人类活动引发的灾难,具有很强的破坏性。"位于伊比利亚西部的葡萄牙,由于地形、植被、气候和社会人口条件等因素的综合作用,导致燃料积累,最近经历了几次大规模火灾事件,包括特大火灾。研究火灾危险性的一种方法是使用火灾气象指数,这些指数通常用于量化可能导致火灾点燃和蔓延的气象条件。本研究旨在利用气象研究和预测 (WRF) 模型,在 CMIP6 套件中的马克斯-普朗克研究所 (MPI) 模型的强制作用下,在三种排放情景(SSP2-4.5、SSP3-7.0 和 SSP58.5)下,对当前时期(1995-2014 年)和未来两个时期(2046-2065 年和 2081-2100 年)的葡萄牙火灾气象指数 (FWI) 进行高分辨率(约 6 千米)的未来预测。结果表明,FWI 与来自 WRF 和再分析的 FWI 子项之间具有良好的一致性。模拟的 FWI 再现了气候学上的火险分布 预测表明,在所有情景和时间范围内,极高到极端火险天数(FWI >38)都会增加,南部和东北部地区的变化最为显著。南部和东北部地区的变化最大,表明不同情景和地区之间存在显著变化。这项研究表明,应进一步研究粮食总产量指数及其子要素。我们的研究结果凸显了制定新的适应措施的重要性,尤其是在风险最高的地区,不同的参与者和管理机构应提前做好准备,以便在未来降低日益增长的野火风险。
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来源期刊
Theoretical and Applied Climatology
Theoretical and Applied Climatology 地学-气象与大气科学
CiteScore
6.00
自引率
11.80%
发文量
376
审稿时长
4.3 months
期刊介绍: Theoretical and Applied Climatology covers the following topics: - climate modeling, climatic changes and climate forecasting, micro- to mesoclimate, applied meteorology as in agro- and forestmeteorology, biometeorology, building meteorology and atmospheric radiation problems as they relate to the biosphere - effects of anthropogenic and natural aerosols or gaseous trace constituents - hardware and software elements of meteorological measurements, including techniques of remote sensing
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