Susana Cardoso Pereira, Nuno Monteiro, Ricardo Vaz, David Carvalho
{"title":"High-resolution projections of future FWI conditions for Portugal according to CMIP6 future climate scenarios","authors":"Susana Cardoso Pereira, Nuno Monteiro, Ricardo Vaz, David Carvalho","doi":"10.1007/s00704-024-05142-y","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p>Wildfires are catastrophes of natural origin or initiated by human activities with high disruptive potential. \"Portugal, located in western Iberia, has recently experienced several large fire events, including megafires, due to a combination of factors such as orography, vegetation, climate, and socio-demographic conditions that contribute to fuel accumulation.\". One approach to studying fire danger is to use fire weather indices that are commonly used to quantify meteorological conditions that can lead to fire ignition and spread. This study aims to provide high-resolution (~ 6 km) future projections of the Fire Weather Index (FWI) for Portugal using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, forced by the Max Planck Institute (MPI) model from the CMIP6 suite, under three emission scenarios (SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP58.5) for the present period (1995–2014) and two future periods (2046–2065 and 2081–2100). The results show good agreement between FWI and its subcomponents from the WRF and reanalysis. The modelled FWI reproduced the climatological distribution of fire danger Projections indicate an increase in days with very high to extreme fire danger (FWI > 38) across all scenarios and time frames, with the southern and northeastern regions experiencing the most significant changes. The southern and northeastern parts of the territory experienced the largest changes, indicating significant changes between the scenarios and regions. This study suggests that FWI and its subcomponents should be investigated further. Our results highlight the importance of creating new adaptation measures, especially in the areas most at risk, prepared in advance by different players and authorities, so that the increasing risk of wildfires can be mitigated in the future.</p>","PeriodicalId":22945,"journal":{"name":"Theoretical and Applied Climatology","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.8000,"publicationDate":"2024-09-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Theoretical and Applied Climatology","FirstCategoryId":"89","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-024-05142-y","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q3","JCRName":"METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
Wildfires are catastrophes of natural origin or initiated by human activities with high disruptive potential. "Portugal, located in western Iberia, has recently experienced several large fire events, including megafires, due to a combination of factors such as orography, vegetation, climate, and socio-demographic conditions that contribute to fuel accumulation.". One approach to studying fire danger is to use fire weather indices that are commonly used to quantify meteorological conditions that can lead to fire ignition and spread. This study aims to provide high-resolution (~ 6 km) future projections of the Fire Weather Index (FWI) for Portugal using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, forced by the Max Planck Institute (MPI) model from the CMIP6 suite, under three emission scenarios (SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP58.5) for the present period (1995–2014) and two future periods (2046–2065 and 2081–2100). The results show good agreement between FWI and its subcomponents from the WRF and reanalysis. The modelled FWI reproduced the climatological distribution of fire danger Projections indicate an increase in days with very high to extreme fire danger (FWI > 38) across all scenarios and time frames, with the southern and northeastern regions experiencing the most significant changes. The southern and northeastern parts of the territory experienced the largest changes, indicating significant changes between the scenarios and regions. This study suggests that FWI and its subcomponents should be investigated further. Our results highlight the importance of creating new adaptation measures, especially in the areas most at risk, prepared in advance by different players and authorities, so that the increasing risk of wildfires can be mitigated in the future.
期刊介绍:
Theoretical and Applied Climatology covers the following topics:
- climate modeling, climatic changes and climate forecasting, micro- to mesoclimate, applied meteorology as in agro- and forestmeteorology, biometeorology, building meteorology and atmospheric radiation problems as they relate to the biosphere
- effects of anthropogenic and natural aerosols or gaseous trace constituents
- hardware and software elements of meteorological measurements, including techniques of remote sensing