Predicting mortality in critically ill patients with hypertension using machine learning and deep learning models

Abstract

Background: Accurate prediction of mortality in critically ill patients with hypertension admitted to the Intensive Care Unit (ICU) is essential for guiding clinical decision-making and improving patient outcomes. Traditional prognostic tools often fall short in capturing the complex interactions between clinical variables in this high-risk population. Recent advances in machine learning (ML) and deep learning (DL) offer the potential for developing more sophisticated and accurate predictive models. Objective: This study aims to evaluate the performance of various ML and DL models in predicting mortality among critically ill patients with hypertension, with a particular focus on identifying key clinical predictors and assessing the comparative effectiveness of these models. Methods: We conducted a retrospective analysis of 30,096 critically ill patients with hypertension admitted to the ICU. Various ML models, including logistic regression, decision trees, and support vector machines, were compared with advanced DL models, including 1D convolutional neural networks (CNNs) and long short-term memory (LSTM) networks. Model performance was evaluated using area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and other performance metrics. SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) values were used to interpret model outputs and identify key predictors of mortality. Results: The 1D CNN model with an initial selection of predictors achieved the highest AUC (0.7744), outperforming both traditional ML models and other DL models. Key clinical predictors of mortality identified across models included the APS-III score, age, and length of ICU stay. The SHAP analysis revealed that these predictors had a substantial influence on model predictions, underscoring their importance in assessing mortality risk in this patient population. Conclusion: Deep learning models, particularly the 1D CNN, demonstrated superior predictive accuracy compared to traditional ML models in predicting mortality among critically ill patients with hypertension. The integration of these models into clinical workflows could enhance the early identification of high-risk patients, enabling more targeted interventions and improving patient outcomes. Future research should focus on the prospective validation of these models and the ethical considerations associated with their implementation in clinical practice.