Trade Gap and Public Debt Sustainability in Nigeria

IF 1.1 Q4 BUSINESS
Kpeyol Kamo, Jerome Andohol, Gbatsoron Anjande, Victor Ushahemba Ijirshar
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Abstract

This study assessed the effect of the trade gap on public debt sustainability and the transmission from the trade gap to public debt sustainability through the revenue channel using annual data for Nigeria from 1970 to 2022. The novelty of this study lies in its investigation of factors affecting trade gap shocks and its departure from conventional debt sustainability metrics, offering a deeper understanding of the connection between trade gap and public debt sustainability. The study has been anchored on the theory of trade misinvoicing. The researchers applied the structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) method, which has been estimated using the impulse response function tool. The findings established a negative effect of the trade gap on public debt sustainability. The results further show that the revenue variable is, on average, related to a larger (negative) effect of the trade gap. However, the effect of the trade gap on debt sustainability is shown to be communicated through budget deficits and not the revenue channel. The study recommends that policymakers should prioritise measures to counteract the negative impact of the trade gap on the economy. This may include boosting exports, decreasing import reliance and enhancing competitiveness in global markets.JEL Codes: F14, H62, H63
尼日利亚的贸易差额和公共债务可持续性
本研究利用尼日利亚 1970 年至 2022 年的年度数据,评估了贸易差额对公共债务可持续性的影响,以及贸易差额通过收入渠道对公共债务可持续性的传导。本研究的新颖之处在于它对影响贸易差额冲击的因素进行了调查,并偏离了传统的债务可持续性指标,从而使人们对贸易差额与公共债务可持续性之间的联系有了更深入的了解。本研究以贸易不实理论为基础。研究人员采用了结构向量自回归(SVAR)方法,并使用脉冲响应函数工具对其进行了估算。研究结果表明,贸易差额对公共债务的可持续性有负面影响。结果进一步表明,平均而言,收入变量与贸易差额的较大(负)影响相关。然而,贸易差额对债务可持续性的影响是通过预算赤字而不是收入渠道传递的。研究建议,决策者应优先采取措施,消除贸易差距对经济的负面影响。这可能包括促进出口、减少对进口的依赖以及提高在全球市场的竞争力:F14, H62, H63
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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来源期刊
CiteScore
2.50
自引率
23.10%
发文量
37
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