A study on the small failure probabilities of cylindrical composite hydrogen storage tanks using subset simulation

IF 1.7 4区 工程技术 Q3 ENGINEERING, INDUSTRIAL
Youcef Sid Amer, Samir Benammar, Kong Fah Tee, Zouhir Iourzikene
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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Although composite hydrogen tanks are becoming increasingly intriguing, a detailed structural reliability analysis is still lacking. The current landscape of analysis for pressurised multilayer cylinders, while rich in research, lacks tools to deal with the low probabilities of failure that govern the design of hydrogen tanks. This study presents a computational framework integrating the Subset Simulation method (SS) for assessing the failure probability of composite tanks used for hydrogen storage. To explore how randomness impacts design parameters, this study utilises a limit state equation derived from the thin-walled circumferential model of composite pressure tanks. Five random variables, each with varying coefficients of variation (COVs), are incorporated into the analysis. For comparison and validation purposes, two methods Monte Carlo simulations and FORM have been used. The analysis revealed that SS excels at estimating the low failure probabilities of composite hydrogen tanks, and showed also the feasibility and accuracy of SS in the prediction of burst pressure since good agreement was obtained between the probabilistic approach and the experimental results. Furthermore, the uncertainties related to internal pressure and composite thickness affect significantly the reliability of the structure and can lead to the shrinkage of the safety margin and the failure of the vessel.
利用子集模拟研究圆柱形复合材料储氢罐的小故障概率
尽管复合材料氢气罐越来越吸引人,但仍然缺乏详细的结构可靠性分析。目前对加压多层气瓶的分析虽然研究成果丰富,但却缺乏工具来处理氢气罐设计中的低失效概率问题。本研究提出了一个计算框架,该框架集成了子集模拟法(SS),用于评估氢气存储用复合材料储罐的失效概率。为了探索随机性如何影响设计参数,本研究利用了从复合材料压力容器薄壁圆周模型中推导出的极限状态方程。分析中纳入了五个随机变量,每个变量都有不同的变异系数(COV)。为了进行比较和验证,使用了蒙特卡罗模拟和 FORM 两种方法。分析结果表明,SS 在估算复合材料氢气罐的低失效概率方面表现出色,同时还显示了 SS 在预测爆破压力方面的可行性和准确性,因为概率方法与实验结果之间取得了良好的一致。此外,与内部压力和复合材料厚度相关的不确定性会严重影响结构的可靠性,并可能导致安全裕度缩减和容器失效。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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来源期刊
CiteScore
4.50
自引率
19.00%
发文量
81
审稿时长
6-12 weeks
期刊介绍: The Journal of Risk and Reliability is for researchers and practitioners who are involved in the field of risk analysis and reliability engineering. The remit of the Journal covers concepts, theories, principles, approaches, methods and models for the proper understanding, assessment, characterisation and management of the risk and reliability of engineering systems. The journal welcomes papers which are based on mathematical and probabilistic analysis, simulation and/or optimisation, as well as works highlighting conceptual and managerial issues. Papers that provide perspectives on current practices and methods, and how to improve these, are also welcome
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