Applications of machine learning to predict seasonal precipitation for East Africa

Abstract

Seasonal climate forecasts are commonly based on model runs from fully coupled forecasting systems that use Earth system models to represent interactions between the atmosphere, ocean, land and other Earth-system components. Recently, machine learning (ML) methods are increasingly being investigated for this task where large-scale climate variability is linked to local or regional temperature or precipitation in a linear or non-linear fashion. This paper investigates the use of interpretable ML methods to predict seasonal precipitation for East Africa in an operational setting. Dimension reduction is performed by decomposing the precipitation fields via empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs), such that only the respective factor loadings need to the predicted. Indices of large-scale climate variability--including the rate of change in individual indices as well as interactions between different indices--are then used as potential features to obtain tercile forecasts from an interpretable ML algorithm. Several research questions regarding the use of data and the effect of model complexity are studied. The results are compared against the ECMWF seasonal forecasting system (SEAS5) for three seasons--MAM, JJAS and OND--over the period 1993-2020. Compared to climatology for the same period, the ECMWF forecasts have negative skill in MAM and JJAS and significant positive skill in OND. The ML approach is on par with climatology in MAM and JJAS and a significantly positive skill in OND, if not quite at the level of the OND ECMWF forecast.