Impact of climate change on the behaviour of solar radiation using AFR-CORDEX model over West Africa

IF 1.9 4区 地球科学 Q3 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES
O. S. Ojo, I. Emmanuel, K. D. Adedayo, E. O. Ogolo, B. Adeyemi
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引用次数: 0

Abstract

The study evaluated the impact of climate change on incoming solar radiation (RSDS) in West Africa by comparing observed data from the CMSAF solar products (SARAH and CLARA-A1) for the period 1983–2019 with simulated data from the AFR-CORDEX models (RegCM-4.7 and CCCma-canRCM4) for the historical period (1983–2004) and various RCP emission scenarios (2.6, 4.5, 8.5) for 2005–2099. The values of the RCP in parentheses signify the level of increasing radiative forcings due to varying emission controls. Assessment metrics like correlation coefficient (R), Taylor Skill Score (TSS), and root mean square errors (RMSE) were employed for comparative analysis on annual and seasonal timescales. The analyses revealed annual mean RSDS intensities of 256.22 for SARAH, 238.53 for CLARA-A1, 270.81 for Historical, 270.26 for RCP 2.6, 255.90 for RCP 4.5, and 271.93 for the RCP 8.5 scenarios in watts per square metres. The TSS analyses showed average agreement values between observed CMSAF and simulated AFR-CORDEX solar radiation with values of 0.8450 and 0.8575 with historical, 0.8750 and 0.8600 with RCP 2.6, 0.9025 and 0.8550 with RCP 4.5, and 0.8675 and 0.8525 with RCP 8.5 scenarios for SARAH and CLARA-A1 respectively. All the metrics showed better agreement with SARAH than CLARA-A1, likely due to the associated cloud influence on CLARA-A1. Notably, the CORDEX-CCCma-canRCM4 model under RCP 4.5 demonstrated the highest accuracy, with an average correlation of 0.82 and a mean TSS of 0.90 against the SARAH reference dataset. The results suggest the AFR-CORDEX model, particularly the CCCma-canRCM4 for RCP 4.5 scenario, could reliably predict solar radiation and inform climate change impacts on solar energy potential in West Africa under moderate emission conditions.

Abstract Image

利用西非 AFR-CORDEX 模型分析气候变化对太阳辐射行为的影响
该研究通过比较 CMSAF 太阳产品(SARAH 和 CLARA-A1)1983-2019 年期间的观测数据与 AFR-CORDEX 模型(RegCM-4.7 和 CCCma-canRCM4)历史时期(1983-2004 年)和 2005-2099 年各种 RCP 排放情景(2.6、4.5、8.5)的模拟数据,评估了气候变化对进入西非的太阳辐射(RSDS)的影响。括号中的 RCP 值表示不同排放控制导致辐射强迫增加的程度。采用相关系数(R)、泰勒技能分数(TSS)和均方根误差(RMSE)等评估指标对年度和季节时间尺度进行比较分析。分析结果显示,SARAH 的年平均 RSDS 强度为 256.22,CLARA-A1 为 238.53,历史情景为 270.81,RCP 2.6 为 270.26,RCP 4.5 为 255.90,RCP 8.5 情景为 271.93(单位:瓦特/平方米)。TSS 分析表明,对于 SARAH 和 CLARA-A1,观测 CMSAF 和模拟 AFR-CORDEX 太阳辐射量之间的平均一致值分别为:历史值 0.8450 和 0.8575,RCP 2.6 0.8750 和 0.8600,RCP 4.5 0.9025 和 0.8550,RCP 8.5 0.8675 和 0.8525。与 CLARA-A1 相比,所有指标与 SARAH 的一致性都更好,这可能是由于相关云层对 CLARA-A1 的影响。值得注意的是,在 RCP 4.5 条件下,CORDEX-CCCma-canRCM4 模型的准确度最高,与 SARAH 参考数据集的平均相关性为 0.82,平均 TSS 为 0.90。结果表明,AFR-CORDEX 模型,尤其是 RCP 4.5 情景下的 CCCma-canRCM4 模型,可以可靠地预测太阳辐射,并告知在中等排放条件下气候变化对西非太阳能潜力的影响。
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来源期刊
Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics
Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics 地学-气象与大气科学
CiteScore
4.00
自引率
5.00%
发文量
87
审稿时长
6-12 weeks
期刊介绍: Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics accepts original research papers for publication following the recommendations of a review panel. The emphasis lies with the following topic areas: - atmospheric dynamics and general circulation; - synoptic meteorology; - weather systems in specific regions, such as the tropics, the polar caps, the oceans; - atmospheric energetics; - numerical modeling and forecasting; - physical and chemical processes in the atmosphere, including radiation, optical effects, electricity, and atmospheric turbulence and transport processes; - mathematical and statistical techniques applied to meteorological data sets Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics discusses physical and chemical processes - in both clear and cloudy atmospheres - including radiation, optical and electrical effects, precipitation and cloud microphysics.
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