Investigation about the cause of the intense pre-monsoon cyclonic system over the Bay of Bengal

IF 1.9 4区 地球科学 Q3 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES
Pankaj Lal Sahu, Sandeep Pattnaik
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Abstract

A 41-year dataset from 1982 to 2022 analyzed climatic patterns influencing cyclone formation in the Bay of Bengal (BoB). Results showed a significant increase in sea surface temperature (SST) and a warming trend over the past four decades. Specific humidity increased while wind shear decreased. The moisture budget showed increased precipitation and evaporation rates, possibly due to more warming scenarios. Tropical Cyclones (TC) experienced significant increases in SST anomalies. These anomalies were higher during cyclonic than non-cyclonic years, except for 2015, due to El Niño conditions. Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential (TCHP) values increased in cyclonic years, while specific humidity (SH) anomalies increased 10–15 days before cyclone formation. Moist static energy (MSE) values increased across the BoB region, with TCs Amphan, Yaas, and Asani exhibiting significant positive relative vorticity (RV) anomalies. The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) plays a crucial role in TC initiation and intensification, with recent TC demonstrating this. In general, the Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis of SST, upper-level moisture, and low wind shear for May over the BoB reveals more conducive conditions for TC intensification. Furthermore, it is also found that the negative phase of the Indian Ocean Dipole (NIOD) associated pre-monsoon month of May has produced more intense TCs in recent years over BoB. The findings of this study will facilitate augmenting existing knowledge and understanding about the genesis and intensification of pre-monsoon TCs over BoB.

Abstract Image

孟加拉湾季前强烈气旋系统成因调查
从 1982 年到 2022 年的 41 年数据集分析了影响孟加拉湾(BoB)气旋形成的气候模式。结果表明,在过去 40 年中,海面温度(SST)明显上升,并呈变暖趋势。比湿增加,而风切变减少。湿度预算显示降水量和蒸发率增加,这可能是由于更多的变暖情景造成的。热带气旋(TC)的 SST 异常值显著增加。除 2015 年外,由于厄尔尼诺现象的影响,气旋年的异常值高于非气旋年。热带气旋热势(TCHP)值在气旋年有所增加,而比湿度(SH)异常值在气旋形成前 10-15 天有所增加。整个波罗的海地区的湿静态能量(MSE)值增加,热带气旋安潘、雅斯和阿萨尼表现出显著的正相对涡度(RV)异常。马登-朱利安涛动(MJO)在热带气旋的形成和加强中起着至关重要的作用,最近的热带气旋就证明了这一点。总体而言,对波罗的海上空 5 月份的海温、高层水汽和低风切变的经验正交函数(EOF)分析显示了更有利于热带气旋加强的条件。此外,研究还发现,印度洋偶极子(NIOD)的负相位与季风前五月相关,近年来在渤海湾上空产生了更强烈的热带气旋。本研究的结果将有助于丰富现有知识,加深对波罗的海季风前气旋的成因和强度的理解。
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来源期刊
Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics
Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics 地学-气象与大气科学
CiteScore
4.00
自引率
5.00%
发文量
87
审稿时长
6-12 weeks
期刊介绍: Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics accepts original research papers for publication following the recommendations of a review panel. The emphasis lies with the following topic areas: - atmospheric dynamics and general circulation; - synoptic meteorology; - weather systems in specific regions, such as the tropics, the polar caps, the oceans; - atmospheric energetics; - numerical modeling and forecasting; - physical and chemical processes in the atmosphere, including radiation, optical effects, electricity, and atmospheric turbulence and transport processes; - mathematical and statistical techniques applied to meteorological data sets Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics discusses physical and chemical processes - in both clear and cloudy atmospheres - including radiation, optical and electrical effects, precipitation and cloud microphysics.
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