Does remaining in Russia affect analysts’ sentiment?

Abstract

Purpose

Since February 2022, the conflict between Ukraine and Russia has significantly influenced global financial markets, altering investor behavior and increasing market volatility. Western countries’ sanctions on Russia have influenced market uncertainty. Academic literature has deeply investigated the market’s reaction to the conflict and demonstrated a diverse range of impacts. Our study delves into how corporate decisions to remain in or exit Russia during the conflict influence analyst sentiment.

Design/methodology/approach

Leveraging data on analysts' revision scores (ARS) from Eikon, Refinitiv, our analysis underscores the importance of analysts during periods of uncertainty (Kacperczyk and Seru, 2007; Loh and Stulz, 2018). Using static and dynamic panel analysis, we examine the impact of Russia exposure on ARS while controlling for key variables.

Findings

Companies that retain a presence in Russia tend to enhance the overall ARS score, contributing to increased optimism among analysts regarding forecasts for the firms in question. Controlling for endogeneity and underlying dynamics in ARS does not alter the main findings. All in all, the results confirm the absence of an impact on the companies' returns post-announcement to continue or leave Russia after the start of the conflict (Balyuk and Fedyk, 2023).

Originality/value

This research sheds light on the complex relationship between geopolitical events, corporate decisions and investor sentiment, offering valuable insights for stakeholders, policymakers and regulators.