Using demographic modeling to develop post‐fire restoration strategies for a native shrub in a sage scrub community

IF 2.8 3区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 ECOLOGY
Diane M. Thomson
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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Mediterranean‐climate shrublands are key biodiversity hotspots and carbon storage pools, but are increasingly threatened by climate change, non‐native species, and altered fire regimes. Fires are important to historic shrubland disturbance cycles but can also promote non‐native plants, which may limit post‐fire native shrub recovery. Increasing drought with climate change could also reduce post‐fire shrub regeneration. I developed a stochastic, individual‐based demographic model (IBM) for the native shrub Artemisia californica, parameterized from an experimental removal of non‐native annuals after a 2013 fire in southern California. The IBM simulated A. californica recovery for 7 years after fire under different rainfall conditions (drought or pre‐drought) and non‐native removal strategies (from no years to all 7 years). Drought lowered A. californica canopy volume 7 years after fire by 90% or more. Rainfall in the second year after fire, when most A. californica germination occurred, had particularly strong effects on final canopy cover. Non‐native removal in all 7 years increased canopy volume by three times under drought conditions and 3.5 times under pre‐drought conditions. Targeting non‐native removal in the first 2 years proved nearly as effective, achieving from 88% (drought) to 95% (pre‐drought) the benefits of removal in all 7 years. In sum, low rainfall may be the most important limitation on post‐fire shrub recovery, but removal of non‐natives in years of pulsed shrub recruitment can be an effective restoration strategy even under drought conditions. More generally, this study illustrates how demographic models can help optimize the targeting of scarce management and restoration resources.
利用人口模型为鼠尾草灌丛群落中的一种本地灌木制定火灾后恢复战略
地中海气候灌木林地是生物多样性的关键热点和碳储存库,但正日益受到气候变化、非本地物种和火灾机制改变的威胁。火灾对历史上的灌木林干扰周期非常重要,但也会促进非本地植物的生长,这可能会限制火灾后本地灌木的恢复。随着气候变化而加剧的干旱也会减少火后灌木的再生。我为原生灌木加州蒿(Artemisia californica)开发了一个基于个体的随机人口统计模型(IBM),该模型的参数来自 2013 年南加州火灾后对非原生一年生植物的实验性清除。IBM 模拟了在不同降雨条件(干旱或干旱前)和非本地移除策略(从无年份到全部 7 年)下,加州蒿在火灾后 7 年的恢复情况。火灾 7 年后,干旱使加州杉树冠体积减少了 90% 或更多。火灾后第二年的降雨量对最终树冠覆盖率的影响尤为明显,因为大部分加州杉都是在第二年发芽的。在所有 7 年中,在干旱条件下清除非本地物种可使树冠面积增加 3 倍,在干旱前条件下增加 3.5 倍。事实证明,在前两年清除非本地物种几乎同样有效,在所有 7 年中,清除非本地物种的效益从 88%(干旱)到 95%(干旱前)不等。总之,降雨量低可能是限制火灾后灌木恢复的最重要因素,但即使在干旱条件下,在灌木大量繁殖的年份清除非本地物种也是一种有效的恢复策略。更广泛地说,这项研究说明了人口统计模型如何帮助优化稀缺的管理和恢复资源。
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来源期刊
Restoration Ecology
Restoration Ecology 环境科学-生态学
CiteScore
6.50
自引率
15.60%
发文量
226
审稿时长
12-24 weeks
期刊介绍: Restoration Ecology fosters the exchange of ideas among the many disciplines involved with ecological restoration. Addressing global concerns and communicating them to the international research community and restoration practitioners, the journal is at the forefront of a vital new direction in science, ecology, and policy. Original papers describe experimental, observational, and theoretical studies on terrestrial, marine, and freshwater systems, and are considered without taxonomic bias. Contributions span the natural sciences, including ecological and biological aspects, as well as the restoration of soil, air and water when set in an ecological context; and the social sciences, including cultural, philosophical, political, educational, economic and historical aspects. Edited by a distinguished panel, the journal continues to be a major conduit for researchers to publish their findings in the fight to not only halt ecological damage, but also to ultimately reverse it.
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