Current and Future Distribution of the Cataglyphis nodus (Brullé, 1833) in the Middle East and North Africa

Abstract

Climate change is a major threat to the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, which can cause significant harm to its plant and animal species. We predicted the habitat distribution of Cataglyphis nodus (Brullé, 1833) in MENA using MaxEnt models under current and future climate conditions. Our analysis indicates that the cooler regions of the MENA are projected to experience temperature increases of 1–2 °C by 2040 and 2–4 °C by the 2070s. Similarly, the warmer regions may anticipate rises of 0.5–2 °C by 2040 and 2–4 °C by the 2070s. MaxEnt model results for the current climate show good agreement with observations (mean area under the curve value of 0.975 and mean true statistical skill value of 0.8), indicating good potential habitat suitability for C. nodus. Significant factors affecting habitat suitability are elevation, mean monthly precipitation of the coldest quarter, temperature seasonality, and precipitation amount of the driest month. The research predicts that under Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) 1.2.6, the habitat suitability area may increase by 6% in 2040, while SSP 3.7.0 (0.3%) and SSP 5.8.5 (2.6%) predict a decrease. For 2070, SSP 5.8.5 predicts a 2.2% reduction in habitat suitability, while SSP 1.2.6 (0.4%) and SSP 3.7.0 (1.3%) predict slight increases. The results provide insight into the potential impacts of climate change on the species and regional biodiversity changes associated with the projected species distribution.