Exploiting time zone differences to harmonize electricity supplies: case study of the Central Asian Region

Abstract

The present study estimates that in the baseline scenario – with each country in the Central Asian Region attempting achieving energy security individually – the region would need to add 192,000 MW in RE capacity in the medium-term. This capacity would substitute approximately 80,000 MW of fossil-fuel fired generation capacity and contribute to achieving climate commitments. Highlighting the benefits of region-wide harmonization of demand across time zones, the paper demonstrates the smoothening the so called 'duck curve', otherwise observed for individual member countries within the region. Electricity supply is presumed to continue from hydropower and non-hydropower RE plant and from wind energy generation and solar PV plants that are optimally located within the region. In this scenario, meeting region-wide aggregated demand necessitates the addition of an estimated 153,000 MW of non-hydro RE options to replace some 80,000 MW of fossil fuel fired generation, thereby pre-empting the build-out of 49,000 MW in non-hydro RE generation capacity. As an extension, the paper projects that China would serve as the residual consumer, absorbing surpluses from the other countries in the region, as well as serving as the residual supplier bridging deficits in the region, thereby helping minimize—or even eliminate -the build-out of localized storage capacities.