N. Trajtenberg, S. Fossati, C. Diaz, A. E. Nivette, R. Aguilar, A. Ahven, L. Andrade, S. Amram, B. Ariel, M. J. Arosemena Burbano, R. Astolfi, D. Baier, H.-M. Bark, J. E. H. Beijers, M. Bergman, D. Borges, G. Breeztke, I. Cano, I. A. Concha Eastman, S. Curtis-Ham, R. Davenport, C. Droppelman, D. Fleitas, M. Gerell, K.-H. Jang, J. Kääriäinen, T. Lappi-Seppälä, W.-S. Lim, R. Loureiro Revilla, L. Mazerolle, C. Mendoza, G. Meško, N. Pereda, M. F. Peres, R. Poblete-Cazenave, E. Rojido, S. Rose, O. Sanchez de Ribera, R. Svensson, T. van der Lippe, J. A. M. Veldkamp, C. J. Vilalta Perdomo, R. Zahnow, M. P. Eisner
{"title":"The heterogeneous effects of COVID-19 lockdowns on crime across the world","authors":"N. Trajtenberg, S. Fossati, C. Diaz, A. E. Nivette, R. Aguilar, A. Ahven, L. Andrade, S. Amram, B. Ariel, M. J. Arosemena Burbano, R. Astolfi, D. Baier, H.-M. Bark, J. E. H. Beijers, M. Bergman, D. Borges, G. Breeztke, I. Cano, I. A. Concha Eastman, S. Curtis-Ham, R. Davenport, C. Droppelman, D. Fleitas, M. Gerell, K.-H. Jang, J. Kääriäinen, T. Lappi-Seppälä, W.-S. Lim, R. Loureiro Revilla, L. Mazerolle, C. Mendoza, G. Meško, N. Pereda, M. F. Peres, R. Poblete-Cazenave, E. Rojido, S. Rose, O. Sanchez de Ribera, R. Svensson, T. van der Lippe, J. A. M. Veldkamp, C. J. Vilalta Perdomo, R. Zahnow, M. P. Eisner","doi":"10.1186/s40163-024-00220-y","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p>There is a vast literature evaluating the empirical association between stay-at-home policies and crime during the COVID-19 pandemic. However, these academic efforts have primarily focused on the effects within specific cities or regions rather than adopting a cross-national comparative approach. Moreover, this body of literature not only generally lacks causal estimates but also has overlooked possible heterogeneities across different levels of stringency in mobility restrictions. This paper exploits the spatial and temporal variation of government responses to the pandemic in 45 cities across five continents to identify the causal impact of strict lockdown policies on the number of offenses reported to local police. We find that cities that implemented strict lockdowns experienced larger declines in some crime types (robbery, burglary, vehicle theft) but not others (assault, theft, homicide). This decline in crime rates attributed to more stringent policy responses represents only a small proportion of the effects documented in the literature.</p>","PeriodicalId":37844,"journal":{"name":"Crime Science","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.1000,"publicationDate":"2024-08-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Crime Science","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1186/s40163-024-00220-y","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"CRIMINOLOGY & PENOLOGY","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
There is a vast literature evaluating the empirical association between stay-at-home policies and crime during the COVID-19 pandemic. However, these academic efforts have primarily focused on the effects within specific cities or regions rather than adopting a cross-national comparative approach. Moreover, this body of literature not only generally lacks causal estimates but also has overlooked possible heterogeneities across different levels of stringency in mobility restrictions. This paper exploits the spatial and temporal variation of government responses to the pandemic in 45 cities across five continents to identify the causal impact of strict lockdown policies on the number of offenses reported to local police. We find that cities that implemented strict lockdowns experienced larger declines in some crime types (robbery, burglary, vehicle theft) but not others (assault, theft, homicide). This decline in crime rates attributed to more stringent policy responses represents only a small proportion of the effects documented in the literature.
期刊介绍:
Crime Science is an international, interdisciplinary, peer-reviewed journal with an applied focus. The journal''s main focus is on research articles and systematic reviews that reflect the growing cooperation among a variety of fields, including environmental criminology, economics, engineering, geography, public health, psychology, statistics and urban planning, on improving the detection, prevention and understanding of crime and disorder. Crime Science will publish theoretical articles that are relevant to the field, for example, approaches that integrate theories from different disciplines. The goal of the journal is to broaden the scientific base for the understanding, analysis and control of crime and disorder. It is aimed at researchers, practitioners and policy-makers with an interest in crime reduction. It will also publish short contributions on timely topics including crime patterns, technological advances for detection and prevention, and analytical techniques, and on the crime reduction applications of research from a wide range of fields. Crime Science publishes research articles, systematic reviews, short contributions and theoretical articles. While Crime Science uses the APA reference style, the journal welcomes submissions using alternative reference styles on a case-by-case basis.