The heterogeneous effects of COVID-19 lockdowns on crime across the world

IF 3.1 Q1 CRIMINOLOGY & PENOLOGY
N. Trajtenberg, S. Fossati, C. Diaz, A. E. Nivette, R. Aguilar, A. Ahven, L. Andrade, S. Amram, B. Ariel, M. J. Arosemena Burbano, R. Astolfi, D. Baier, H.-M. Bark, J. E. H. Beijers, M. Bergman, D. Borges, G. Breeztke, I. Cano, I. A. Concha Eastman, S. Curtis-Ham, R. Davenport, C. Droppelman, D. Fleitas, M. Gerell, K.-H. Jang, J. Kääriäinen, T. Lappi-Seppälä, W.-S. Lim, R. Loureiro Revilla, L. Mazerolle, C. Mendoza, G. Meško, N. Pereda, M. F. Peres, R. Poblete-Cazenave, E. Rojido, S. Rose, O. Sanchez de Ribera, R. Svensson, T. van der Lippe, J. A. M. Veldkamp, C. J. Vilalta Perdomo, R. Zahnow, M. P. Eisner
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Abstract

There is a vast literature evaluating the empirical association between stay-at-home policies and crime during the COVID-19 pandemic. However, these academic efforts have primarily focused on the effects within specific cities or regions rather than adopting a cross-national comparative approach. Moreover, this body of literature not only generally lacks causal estimates but also has overlooked possible heterogeneities across different levels of stringency in mobility restrictions. This paper exploits the spatial and temporal variation of government responses to the pandemic in 45 cities across five continents to identify the causal impact of strict lockdown policies on the number of offenses reported to local police. We find that cities that implemented strict lockdowns experienced larger declines in some crime types (robbery, burglary, vehicle theft) but not others (assault, theft, homicide). This decline in crime rates attributed to more stringent policy responses represents only a small proportion of the effects documented in the literature.

Abstract Image

COVID-19 封锁对世界各地犯罪的不同影响
有大量文献评估了 COVID-19 大流行期间居家养老政策与犯罪之间的经验关联。然而,这些学术研究主要侧重于特定城市或地区内的影响,而不是采用跨国比较的方法。此外,这些文献不仅普遍缺乏因果关系估计,而且还忽视了不同严格程度的流动限制可能存在的异质性。本文利用五大洲 45 个城市政府应对大流行病措施的空间和时间差异,确定了严格封锁政策对当地警方接报的违法行为数量的因果影响。我们发现,实施严格封锁政策的城市在某些犯罪类型(抢劫、入室盗窃、车辆盗窃)上出现了较大幅度的下降,而在其他犯罪类型(袭击、盗窃、凶杀)上则没有。这种因更严格的政策应对措施而导致的犯罪率下降只占文献记载效果的一小部分。
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来源期刊
Crime Science
Crime Science Social Sciences-Cultural Studies
CiteScore
11.90
自引率
8.20%
发文量
12
审稿时长
13 weeks
期刊介绍: Crime Science is an international, interdisciplinary, peer-reviewed journal with an applied focus. The journal''s main focus is on research articles and systematic reviews that reflect the growing cooperation among a variety of fields, including environmental criminology, economics, engineering, geography, public health, psychology, statistics and urban planning, on improving the detection, prevention and understanding of crime and disorder. Crime Science will publish theoretical articles that are relevant to the field, for example, approaches that integrate theories from different disciplines. The goal of the journal is to broaden the scientific base for the understanding, analysis and control of crime and disorder. It is aimed at researchers, practitioners and policy-makers with an interest in crime reduction. It will also publish short contributions on timely topics including crime patterns, technological advances for detection and prevention, and analytical techniques, and on the crime reduction applications of research from a wide range of fields. Crime Science publishes research articles, systematic reviews, short contributions and theoretical articles. While Crime Science uses the APA reference style, the journal welcomes submissions using alternative reference styles on a case-by-case basis.
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