Climate winners: Adapting to shifting species in the New England supply chain

Abstract

ObjectiveClimate change is driving shifts in marine species' distributions, affecting resource availability for fishery supply chains worldwide. While research and governance have been in step with fishing impacts, consequences to the downstream supply chain are not generally considered. In this project, we identify how and to what extent New England seafood supply chains are capable of navigating anticipated shifts in species distributions. The study was especially concerned with the degree to which suppliers would consider incorporating "climate winners": species that are predicted to become more abundant in New England waters.MethodsUsing indicators derived from climate resilience and adaptive fisheries frameworks, we characterized supply chain adaptability for 27 seafood businesses across New England.ResultThe results revealed a range of adaptability linked to particular supplier characteristics, including diversity of services, processing infrastructure, and market diversity. External factors such as consumer preference, regulatory policy, and employment in the industry also indicated climate vulnerabilities. Despite these limiting factors, however, most businesses appeared to be not only capable but also willing to incorporate climate winner species into their portfolio.ConclusionOur conclusions support the idea that New England seafood suppliers adopt different strategies for climate resilience based on their business model, with considerable potential to take advantage of species shifts given the right incentives. To reduce vulnerabilities in the face of unprecedented change, it is critical that managing practitioners and partnering organizations encourage portfolio diversification with market incentives and adaptive management measures.