Visibility-informed mapping of potential firefighter lookout locations using maximum entropy modelling

IF 2.9 3区 农林科学 Q1 FORESTRY
Katherine A. Mistick, Michael J. Campbell, Philip E. Dennison
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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Background

Situational awareness is an essential component of wildland firefighter safety. In the US, crew lookouts provide situational awareness by proxy from ground-level locations with visibility of both fire and crew members.

Aims

To use machine learning to predict potential lookout locations based on incident data, mapped visibility, topography, vegetation, and roads.

Methods

Lidar-derived topographic and fuel structural variables were used to generate maps of visibility across 30 study areas that possessed lookout location data. Visibility at multiple viewing distances, distance to roads, topographic position index, canopy height, and canopy cover served as predictors in presence-only maximum entropy modelling to predict lookout suitability based on 66 known lookout locations from recent fires.

Key results and conclusions

The model yielded a receiver-operating characteristic area under the curve of 0.929 with 67% of lookouts correctly identified by the model using a 0.5 probability threshold. Spatially explicit model prediction resulted in a map of the probability a location would be suitable for a lookout; when combined with a map of dominant view direction these tools could provide meaningful support to fire crews.

Implications

This approach could be applied to produce maps summarising potential lookout suitability and dominant view direction across wildland environments for use in pre-fire planning.

利用最大熵建模绘制消防员潜在瞭望地点的可见度信息地图
背景态势感知是野地消防员安全的重要组成部分。在美国,消防队员瞭望哨通过代理地面位置提供态势感知,既能看到火情,也能看到消防队员。目标根据事故数据、绘制的能见度图、地形、植被和道路,利用机器学习预测潜在的瞭望哨位置。方法利用激光雷达得出的地形和燃料结构变量,生成 30 个拥有瞭望哨位置数据的研究区域的能见度地图。多个观察距离的能见度、与道路的距离、地形位置指数、树冠高度和树冠覆盖率作为只存在最大熵建模的预测因子,根据最近火灾中已知的 66 个瞭望台位置预测瞭望台的适宜性。主要结果和结论该模型的曲线下接收器工作特征面积为 0.929,在概率阈值为 0.5 的情况下,该模型正确识别了 67% 的瞭望台。空间显式模型预测得出了一个地点适合作为瞭望点的概率图;当这些工具与主要视线方向图相结合时,可以为消防队员提供有意义的支持。影响这种方法可用于绘制地图,总结野外环境中潜在的瞭望台适宜性和主要视线方向,供火灾前规划使用。
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来源期刊
CiteScore
5.50
自引率
9.70%
发文量
67
审稿时长
12-24 weeks
期刊介绍: International Journal of Wildland Fire publishes new and significant articles that advance basic and applied research concerning wildland fire. Published papers aim to assist in the understanding of the basic principles of fire as a process, its ecological impact at the stand level and the landscape level, modelling fire and its effects, as well as presenting information on how to effectively and efficiently manage fire. The journal has an international perspective, since wildland fire plays a major social, economic and ecological role around the globe. The International Journal of Wildland Fire is published on behalf of the International Association of Wildland Fire.
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