Analyzing and Forecasting the Success in the Men's Ice Hockey World (Junior) Championships Using a Dynamic Ranking Model

Abstract

What factors contribute to the success of national teams in the Men's Ice Hockey World Championships and the Men's Ice Hockey World Junior Championships? This study examines whether hosting the tournament provides a home advantage; the influence of past tournament performances; the impact of players' physical characteristics such as height, weight, and age; and the value of experience from the World Championships compared to the NHL and other leagues. We employ a dynamic ranking model based on the Plackett-Luce distribution with time-varying strength parameters driven by the score. Additionally, we conduct a forecasting analysis to predict the probabilities of winning the tournament, earning a medal, and advancing to the playoff phase.