Investigation of an Ensemble Inflow-Prediction System for Upstream Reservoirs in Sai River, Japan

IF 3 3区环境科学与生态学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Water Pub Date : 2024-09-11 DOI:10.3390/w16182577

Katsunori Tamakawa, Shigeru Nakamura, Cho Thanda Nyunt, Tomoki Ushiyama, Mohamed Rasmy, Keijiro Kubota, Asif Naseer, Eiji Ikoma, Toshihiro Nemoto, Masaru Kitsuregawa, Toshio Koike

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Abstract

In this study, an ensemble inflow-prediction system was developed for a hydropower-generation dam in the upper Sai River basin, and the accuracy of ensemble inflow prediction, which is important for efficient dam operation, was investigated. First, the Water and Energy Based Distributed Hydrological Model for Snow (WEB-DHM-S), a hydrological model developed for the Sai River basin, can represent the hydrological process from warm to cold seasons. Next, a system was developed on the Data Integration and Analysis System (DIAS) to predict inflows into the dam by inputting real-time meteorological data and ensemble rainfall forecast data into WEB-DHM-S. The WEB-DHM-S was calibrated and validated over a 3-year period from August 2015 to July 2018, and showed good agreement with observed inflows from base flow to peak flow and snowmelt runoff in each year. The results of inflow forecasting during frontal rainfall in August 2021 by inputting ensemble rainfall forecasts up to 39 h ahead showed that at the Inekoki Dam site, the total inflow (volume) to the peak was predicted with an accuracy of within 20% at 30 h, 24 h, 18 h, 12 h, and 6 h before the peak. These ensemble inflow forecasts can help optimize dam operations.

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日本西河上游水库流量集合预测系统研究

本研究为赛河流域上游的一个水力发电大坝开发了一个集合流入量预测系统，并研究了集合流入量预测的准确性，这对大坝的高效运行非常重要。首先，为赛河流域开发的水文模型 "基于水和能量的雪地分布式水文模型（WEB-DHM-S）"可代表从暖季到冷季的水文过程。接下来，在数据集成与分析系统（DIAS）上开发了一个系统，通过向 WEB-DHM-S 输入实时气象数据和集合降雨预报数据来预测流入大坝的流量。WEB-DHM-S 在 2015 年 8 月至 2018 年 7 月的 3 年期间进行了校核和验证，结果显示与每年从基流到峰值流量和融雪径流的观测流入量吻合良好。在 2021 年 8 月锋面降雨期间，通过提前 39 小时输入集合降雨预报进行流入量预报的结果表明，在伊内科基大坝站点，在峰值前 30 小时、24 小时、18 小时、12 小时和 6 小时预测峰值总流入量（体积）的准确率在 20% 以内。这些集合流入量预测有助于优化大坝运行。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Water WATER RESOURCES-

CiteScore

5.80

自引率

14.70%

发文量

3491

审稿时长

19.85 days

期刊介绍： Water (ISSN 2073-4441) is an international and cross-disciplinary scholarly journal covering all aspects of water including water science and technology, and the hydrology, ecology and management of water resources. It publishes regular research papers, critical reviews and short communications, and there is no restriction on the length of the papers. Our aim is to encourage scientists to publish their experimental and theoretical research in as much detail as possible. Full experimental and/or methodical details must be provided for research articles. Computed data or files regarding the full details of the experimental procedure, if unable to be published in a normal way, can be deposited as supplementary material.