Alternative agriculture land-use transformation pathways by partial-equilibrium agricultural sector model: a mathematical approach

Abstract

Humanity’s progress in combating hunger, poverty, and child mortality is marred by escalating environmental degradation due to rising greenhouse gas emissions and climate change impacts. Despite positive developments, ecosystems are suffering globally. Regional strategies for mitigating and adapting to climate change must be viewed from a global perspective. The 2015 UN Sustainable Development Goals reflect the challenge of balancing social and environmental aspects for sustainable development. Agriculture, vital for food production, also threatens Earth systems. A study examines the interplay of land-use impacts, modeling crop and livestock trade, and their effects on climate, biodiversity, water, and land using a Partial-Equilibrium Agricultural Sector Model. Different scenarios involving taxing externalities related to Earth processes were tested. Results show synergies in reducing emissions, biodiversity loss, water use, and phosphorus pollution, driven by shifts in crop management. Nitrogen application and deforestation scenarios exhibit weaker synergies and more conflicts. The study offers insights into SDG interactions and the potential for sustainable farming.