On the Issue of Choosing Indicators of Energy Security of the Republic of Uzbekistan in the Context of Scaling Renewable Energy

Abstract

The accelerated transformation of the world’s energy system, associated with events observed over the past 10 years, such as the global energy crisis that began in 2021, the COVID-19 pandemic, and others, have influenced a noticeable change in the face of global energy, dictating the introduction of renewable energy sources at a rapid pace for a “post-crisis” recovery of the global economy. As in other countries of the world, the fourth energy transition in Uzbekistan is also accompanied in accordance with the Sustainable Development Goals. The state plans to install renewable energy sources with a capacity of 4300 MW in 2023, which ultimately contributes to the diversification of energy resources and will make it possible to assess the country’s energy security level, taking into account the share of newly introduced renewable energy capacities. However, if we take into account the peculiarity of the “instability” of renewable energy sources, the energy security of the state may remain under threat. The purpose of this work is to identify the most significant indicators of energy security in assessing its level for Uzbekistan, taking into account the geostrategic, political, technical, and technological features of the country’s energy system based on a detailed and critical review of existing global methodologies regarding the comparison of primary data from two or more samples. It has been revealed that the weight of the indicator “Ratio of primary energy production (extraction) from renewable energy sources to gross fuel and energy consumption” has a significantly comparable role with the indicators of the blocks “Block of diversification of suppliers and types of energy resources,” “Block of reliability of electricity supply,” and “Block of reproduction of the main fund of production (MFP)” due to the political course of Uzbekistan in recent years. Based on the selected indicators, a methodology for assessing the level of energy security of the Republic of Uzbekistan is proposed, which allows one to obtain a transparent picture of energy security in economic sectors. As a result of which it is possible to identify strengths and weaknesses in various areas and timely prevent expected negative results through energy scenarios with a stable and reliable indicator of electricity supply, contributing to an increase in the level of energy security of the country.