Wildlife provisioning selects for higher pathogen virulence in hosts with incomplete immunity

Jason Cosens Walsman, Arietta E Fleming-Davies, Richard Hall, Dana Hawley
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Abstract

Anthropogenic food provisioning provides massive inputs of food to wildlife, with profound ecological and evolutionary consequences. By altering wildlife condition, density, and behavior, provisioning can influence transmission of infectious diseases and thus may impose strong selection pressure on wildlife pathogens. But surprisingly, we lack theory on the eco-evolutionary consequences of provisioning for host-pathogen dynamics. Here we develop a mathematical model of the eco-evolutionary dynamics of a wildlife pathogen under provisioning, motivated by Mycoplasma gallisepticum, a bacterial pathogen that emerged, spread, and changed its virulence in provisioned house finches. We model how provisioning influences the evolution of pathogen virulence, defined here as mortality associated with infection. Consistent with past empirical work, house finches recover from infection and acquire incomplete immunity; this incomplete immunity is stronger if their initial infection was with a more virulent pathogen strain. We find that, even though provisioning improves body condition, it should still select for higher virulence, and thus may actually lead to declines in host populations. These negative effects arise because provisioning magnifies the impact of incomplete immunity, selecting for higher virulence and driving host populations down. Our results highlight that food provisioning can select for more virulent pathogens, with potentially far-reaching implications for conservation.
野生动物的供给选择了免疫不完全的宿主体内更强的病原体毒力
人为食物供给为野生动物提供了大量食物,对生态和进化产生了深远影响。通过改变野生动物的状态、密度和行为,食物供给可以影响传染病的传播,从而对野生动物病原体造成强大的选择压力。但令人吃惊的是,我们缺乏有关供给对宿主-病原体动态的生态进化后果的理论。在这里,我们建立了一个野生动物病原体在供给条件下生态进化动态的数学模型,其动机是五倍子支原体(Mycoplasma gallisepticum),这是一种细菌病原体,它在被供给的家雀中出现、传播并改变了其毒性。我们模拟了供给如何影响病原体毒力的演变,这里的毒力是指与感染相关的死亡率。与过去的经验研究一致,家雀会从感染中恢复并获得不完全免疫力;如果家雀最初感染的是毒性更强的病原体菌株,这种不完全免疫力会更强。我们发现,即使供给能改善身体状况,但它仍然会选择毒性更强的病原体,因此实际上可能会导致宿主种群数量下降。产生这些负面影响的原因是,食物供给放大了不完全免疫的影响,选择了更高的毒力,导致宿主种群数量下降。我们的研究结果突出表明,食物供给会选择毒性更强的病原体,这可能会对物种保护产生深远影响。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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