Changing Global Input-Output Linkages and Demand Spillover

IF 3.3 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Imf Economic Review Pub Date : 2024-08-23 DOI:10.1057/s41308-024-00259-6

Wataru Miyamoto, Thuy Lan Nguyen

引用次数: 0

Abstract

This paper examines the effects of changing input-output linkages within and across countries in transmitting shocks across countries between 1965 and 2011. We apply the global input-output framework with the time series for the world input-output tables to examine the spillover of shocks to final demand in 23 countries over the last 47 years. We document that the spillover to foreign countries associated with exogenous changes in final demand in domestic economy is about twice as large now as that in 1965. Moreover, demand spillover is even larger when final demand for more open sectors or foreign goods increases, suggesting the importance of sectoral demand composition. Finally, the foreign spillover in the 2008–2009 Great Recession is large due to both input-output structure changes and sectoral composition of demand.

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不断变化的全球投入产出联系和需求外溢

本文研究了 1965 年至 2011 年间，国家内部和国家之间不断变化的投入产出联系对冲击在国家间传播的影响。我们运用全球投入产出框架和世界投入产出表的时间序列，研究了过去 47 年间 23 个国家最终需求冲击的溢出效应。我们发现，与国内经济最终需求的外生变化相关联的对外国的溢出效应是 1965 年的两倍。此外，当开放程度较高的部门或外国商品的最终需求增加时，需求溢出效应会更大，这表明了部门需求构成的重要性。最后，由于投入产出结构的变化和需求的部门构成，2008-2009 年大衰退中的外溢效应很大。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Imf Economic Review Multiple-

CiteScore

5.50

自引率

4.70%

发文量

期刊介绍： The IMF Economic Review is the official research journal of the International Monetary Fund (IMF). It is dedicated to publishing peer-reviewed, high-quality, context-related academic research on open-economy macroeconomics. It emphasizes rigorous analysis with an empirical orientation that is of interest to a broad audience, including academics and policymakers. Studies that borrow from, and interact with, other fields such as finance, international trade, political economy, labor, economic history or development are also welcome. The views presented in published papers are those of the authors and should not be attributed to, or reported as, reflecting the position of the IMF, its Executive Board, or any other organization mentioned herein. Comments “The IMF Economic Review has been uniquely successful in publishing papers that rigorously analyze real international macroeconomic problems and in a manner that has immediate policy relevance. This success is owed to a great extent to the high quality of the editorial board, which is able to identify papers that are both relevant for policy and are executed using state-of-the-art tools so as to make the analysis compelling.” - Gita Gopinath, Economic Counsellor and Director of Research, IMF “IMF Economic Review is devoted to state-of-the-art research on the global economy. Given the Fund''s unique position on the front lines of surveillance and crisis management, anyone interested in international economic policy or in macroeconomics more generally will find this journal to be essential reading.” - Maurice Obstfeld, Professor of Economics at University of California, Berkeley; and former Economic Counsellor and Director of Research, IMF “There is great need for a rigorous academic publication that addresses the key global macro questions of our times. This is what the IMF Economic Review aims to be.” - Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, Professor of Economics at University of California, Berkeley; and former Editor of the IMF Economic Review “To navigate the global crisis, and to take the best policy decisions, will require mobilizing and extending the knowledge we have about open economy macro, from the implications of liquidity traps, to the dangers of large fiscal deficits, to macro-financial interactions, to the contours of a better international monetary and financial system. My hope and my expectation is that the IMF Economic Review will be central to the effort.” - Olivier J. Blanchard, Peterson Institute for International Economics; former Economic Counsellor and Director of Research Department, IMF