Influence of Forest Management on the Sustainability of Community Areas in Northern Inland Portugal: A Simulated Case Study Assessment

Abstract

The northern inland region of Portugal has experienced significant population decline due to the exodus of younger generations and an aging population. This has led to the abandonment of traditional activities in these territories, contributing to territorial abandonment, degradation of local economic conditions, increased social vulnerability, and a heightened risk of rural fires. The presence of communal lands, known as “baldios”, is an important facilitator for implementing actions that revitalize local villages, making them more attractive to the community. Forests, which are abundant in the baldios of northern inland Portugal, have the potential to generate environmental, social, and economic value through carbon sequestration, job creation, population stabilization, and wealth generation in the villages. However, the viability of this asset as a driver for sustainable development depends on the forest management model implemented. This case study aims to demonstrate that different forest management models have varied impacts on sustainability indicators, particularly economic and environmental sustainability. Based on naturally regenerated forests in the Carvalhelhos baldio in the Tâmega Valley region, data were collected to simulate in software four management scenarios, varying the number (0 to 4) and age of thinnings until the final cut. The simulation allowed for the calculation of the following economic indicators: Internal Rate of Return (IRR), Net Present Value (NPV), and Net Profitability Index (NPI), as well as environmental indicators related to carbon capture and accumulation, such as Gross Carbon Accumulation, Net Carbon Accumulation, Carbon accumulated in dead and suppressed trees, and carbon balance per management model. The simulations indicate that, for the studied area, Scenario 2, which involves only one thinning, yielded the highest total wood volume (cubic meters per hectare) over the cycle, making it the most suitable for biomass production. Meanwhile, Scenario 4, with three thinnings, showed the best results for individual volume (cubic meters per tree), making it more suitable for producing higher-value logs. Scenario 5 presented the best economic results and carbon capture. In all simulations, Scenario 1 showed the worst performance in the analyzed indicators. It was found that the indicators varied among the studied crop plans, highlighting that the adoption of a silvicultural regime depends on the forest characteristics, objectives, exploitation conditions, and local population sensitivity to regional priorities.