Navigating Complexity: Continuity and Change in European Governance, 2023/2024

Abstract

This Annual Review (AR) of the European Union (EU) focuses on the events and developments of 2023. However, our editorial was crafted shortly after a critical turning point, that is, the institutional and political renewal process that began on 6–9 June 2024. During this period, nearly 400 million European citizens were entitled to elect the 720 Members of the 10th European Parliament (EP) Legislature. In the following weeks, crucial decisions were made regarding the EU's top leadership positions. Whilst this pivotal moment will be explored in detail in the next AR, dedicated to 2024, it serves as the backdrop for our reflection on the main developments and dynamics in European governance during 2023. Therefore, after outlining our editorial vision, we briefly reconstruct what can be seen as a choice point at which significant options shape the trajectory of the European project. The following section provides an overview of the AR before making some concluding remarks.

This editorial marks the inaugural effort of a newly appointed team of co-editors. It serves a symbolic purpose by presenting the vision that guided our work. The title of this section aims to encapsulate the pivotal moment in the aftermath of the 2024 EP elections. At the same time, it aptly reflects the essence of our project and serves as a fitting motto. We are firmly committed to maintaining the AR's tradition of high-quality articles, a standard impeccably upheld by the colleagues who preceded us in this job. Concurrently, we aim to introduce specific innovations to enhance the publication's structure and scope. Building on the excellent work of our predecessors and in agreement with the staff of the University Association for Contemporary European Studies (UACES), we have decided to embed the traditional AR's Annual Lecture within the UACES Annual Conference (Trento, 1–4 September 2024). This move aims to enhance the visibility of the AR within the scholarly community, fostering greater engagement amongst its members. Like in past editions, the AR opens with the traditional Annual Lecture, held this year by Alina Mungiu-Pippidi (2024). In addition, we have introduced a division into three thematic sections, supplemented by a ‘Critical Dialogue’ section on a book that we consider particularly relevant for understanding the EU project and, more generally, Europe's current state of affairs. The three thematic sections encompass (1) the roles of pivotal actors and institutions in shaping European integration, (2) the main policy developments concerning domestic and foreign domains in the year of reference and (3) the main electoral developments in the year under review. In the third section, we also introduced a sub-section called ‘Elections in the Mirror’, which deals with comparative evaluations of elections in geographically close EU member states, often facing similar challenges. This addition aims to provide a more fine-grained analysis, illustrating the commonalities and differences amongst the member states, thereby offering more profound insights into Europe's political dynamics and electoral landscapes. Lastly, the new Critical Dialogue section aims to foster discussions based on a book published in the year covered by the AR (Bartels, 2023), involving two reviewers and a reply from the author, to stimulate public debate and enhance scholarly communication. As such, the different parts converge to provide readers with an integrated approach to European politics, unravelling the intricate interactions between multi-level governance and the EU political framework. This cohesive structure aims to offer a comprehensive understanding of how various political, institutional and policy elements interplay within the broader European context. In implementing this subtle integration between changes and continuities in the editorial line, we have recognised the need to emphasise inclusivity. This edition includes contributions from 19 women and 14 men. Our efforts also aim to involve senior and junior scholars and enhance international academic co-operation on joint research topics. Aligned with the goals of the Journal of Common Market Studies (JCMS), we strived to broaden the global outreach of the AR by attracting authors from around the world, a task we will further pursue in future editions, as well as by incorporating practitioners and enhancing the AR's elements of multi-disciplinarity.

European citizens went to the polls for the 2024 European elections in a global context marked by complexity and intricate international dynamics. This includes two wars: the third year of the Russian war of aggression against Ukraine, which represents the most significant international war in Europe since World War II, and the escalation since October 2023 of the Israel–Hamas war, which has led to a Middle East crisis and is challenging member states' unity. In the background, there are growing tensions in EU–China relations, and the prospect of the possible re-election of Donald Trump as President of the United States threatens to bring further uncertainties. 1 Every 5 years, European elections represent a pivotal moment for the EU, marking the beginning of a new political and institutional cycle. New actors come in with the renewal of the EP and the College of Commissioners. Potentially, the turnover can involve all leadership positions: the Presidency of the Commission, that of the EP and the European Council (EUCO) and the High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy/Vice President of the Commission (HR/VP). Similarly, new priorities are set in the EU political agenda, defined by the Heads of State and Government (HOSG) in their ‘Strategic Agenda 2024–29’ and by the Commission President in the new ‘Political Guidelines 2024–29’.

In this respect, the 2024 renewal process was unusual, as it involved more political continuity than change, with the explicit aim of securing the survival of the European project amidst a proliferation of challenges. In this sense, it can be viewed as an unusual phase of (conservative) transition that managed to prevent radical alterations in the evolution of the EU's trajectory by explicitly investing in continuity in leaders and dossiers. We can identify at least five main continuities in both the degree and type of response from EU citizens to the challenge of institutional renewal (e.g., turnout and electoral results) and the outcomes (e.g., group formation, leadership positions and agenda-setting). First, the turnout of European elections (51.05%) represented only a very slight improvement on that of 5 years ago (50.66%), thus fuelling criticisms that consider this level of participation ‘too small to allow us to speak of a substantial vote of confidence in the von der Leyen regime’ (Ludlow, 2024, p. 4). Second, as in the previous two EP elections (2014 and 2019), the electoral campaign across several countries was marked by the fear of the rise of various populist and Eurosceptic radical right parties (Beaudonnet and Gomez, 2024; Bergmann et al., 2021; Braun and Carteny, 2024; Mudde, 2024). Despite these parties performing well and securing over a quarter of the seats, their overall impact was limited for the third consecutive time. This limitation was mainly due to their splitting into various political groups and, in some cases, their isolation as non-affiliated members. Third, even though the increased division on the right means that the 10th Legislature is also more fragmented (eight political groups, one more than the outgoing Parliament), the three main pro-European groups – the European People's Party (EPP), Socialists and Democrats (S&D) and the liberals of Renew Europe – have secured a majority of seats, eventually reinforced by a weakened Group of the Greens/European Free Alliance. Fourth, in terms of leading actors and their political families, EP President Roberta Metsola (EPP) and especially Commission President Ursula von der Leyen (EPP) were confirmed for a second term, 2 acknowledging the dominant role played in EU politics by the EPP, which has managed to maintain the Presidency of the Commission since 2004. The negotiations after the EP elections also brought new figures for the top EU jobs, such as António Costa, a former Portuguese PM, for the Presidency of the EUCO, and Kaja Kallas, the incumbent Estonian PM, for the HR/VP position. These decisions were not taken unanimously. Hungarian PM Viktor Orbán supported Costa's nomination but voted against von der Leyen and abstained on Kallas, whilst Italian PM Giorgia Meloni abstained on von der Leyen but voted against the other two (Ludlow, 2024, p. 14). Fifth, continuity also prevails in priorities, with an agenda focused on enhancing the European economy, strengthening European security and defence and protecting European values.

Intensive political activity preceded the EP's political groups' formation, underscoring the centrality of the Parliament and confirming the importance of parliamentary groups within the EU political system, influencing appointments, speaking time, resources and decision-making processes (Ahrens et al., 2022; Bressanelli and Chelotti, 2020). Despite gaining new members, the European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) was soon overtaken by a newly formed group. This new group, ‘Patriots for Europe’, includes major right-wing parties like Spain's Vox and Italy's Lega, surpassing the ECR with 84 Members of the European Parliament (MEPs). Concurrently, a smaller group, ‘Europe of Sovereign Nations’, was established with 25 members from eight countries, led by Germany's Alternative für Deutschland (AfD). The French Rassemblement National (RN) is the largest party in the new Patriots for Europe group, whilst the German AfD leads the Europe of Sovereign Nations. The Italian Brothers of Italy, whose far-right classification is debated (Baldini, 2024), is the leading force in the ECR. Despite efforts by the ECR, particularly under the leadership of its President and Italian PM Giorgia Meloni, to position itself as a critical player in a more right-leaning parliament, the group remained isolated from the coalition that secured top European positions (Fabbrini, 2024). Despite these re-organisations, the groups connected with the far right face challenges due to internal divisions on economic and foreign policy issues and differing strategies concerning the mainstream political groups. This fragmentation is evident in the varied responses to the EP's (2024) resolution on Russia's war against Ukraine, which several parties of these groups opposed. Such fragmentation, however, does not equate to defeat. These parties still have the potential to influence the European agenda, especially when they lead their national governments, as in the cases of Italy and Hungary.

Beyond these re-organisations, the political equilibrium within the hemicycle exhibits notable continuity, especially with the reaffirmation of the two most numerous party groups, namely, the EPP (with 188 MEPs) and the S&D (with 136 MEPs). In contrast, the Greens and (especially) the Liberals saw a significant loss of seats, particularly within the German and French delegations. In this context, continuity and traditional politics prevailed, as they emerged from the inaugural speeches of both Metsola and von der Leyen. Metsola's (2024) address reaffirmed her commitment to strengthening the Parliament and Europe, advocating for institutional reforms and the rule of law. Not surprisingly, von der Leyen's (2024) ‘Political Guidelines’ drew on the consultations with the supporting EP political groups and the Strategic Agenda and were organised around the following priorities: ‘Europe's sustainable prosperity and competitiveness’, ‘European defence and security’, ‘supporting people, strengthening our societies and our social model’, ‘sustaining our quality of life’, ‘protecting our democracy and upholding our values’, ‘leveraging our power and partnership as a global Europe’ and ‘delivering together and preparing our Union for the future’.

The articles included in this AR focus on the pivotal developments across Europe and within the EU in 2023, spanning electoral dynamics, critical policy initiatives, institutional changes and geopolitical strategies. Highlighting key actors, institutional dynamics and emerging trends, the authors provide nuanced insights into the complexities and opportunities confronting Europe as it navigates through profound political, economic and societal transformations. Mungiu-Pippidi (2024) critically examines the EU's strategy for its Eastern border amid ongoing tensions with Russia, questioning whether the EU's current approach of extending a European perspective to Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia will suffice. She argues that the Russian invasion of Ukraine underlines the need for a new EU paradigm, suggesting that traditional foreign policy tools may be inadequate. Her analysis offers an extremely valuable context for understanding the European agenda in 2023 and beyond. It intersects with other articles, especially in the initial section of the AR, devoted to evaluating the key actors and institutions of the EU's previous political and institutional cycle (2019–2024).

The 2023 AR thoroughly analyses the pivotal political, policy and governance developments that shaped Europe and the EU throughout the year. From significant electoral shifts to evolving cybersecurity policies and institutional dynamics, the review provides invaluable insights into the challenges and opportunities facing the EU in an increasingly dynamic global environment. Each section contributes to a nuanced understanding of Europe's multifaceted realities, reflecting on their implications for future governance, democracy and regional stability. Looking forward to 2024, the upcoming AR will explore the aftermath of the European elections, a critical event signalling the start of a new political and institutional cycle for the EU. With a restructured EP and new leadership in key EU institutions such as the Commission and the EUCO, the review will critically assess the impact of these changes on EU governance and policy-making. Against persistent geopolitical tensions, the AR 2024 will analyse how these external factors shape EU strategies and internal cohesion. It will also examine the implications of the EU's evolving approach to migration policy, influenced by recent electoral outcomes and a broader trend towards more stringent measures. Furthermore, the review will delve into the complexities of EU–China relations and other global challenges, exploring how these interactions inform European policies and priorities. By scrutinising these issues in detail, the 2024 AR aims to maintain its tradition of comprehensively understanding Europe's strategic directions and governance challenges in the coming year. This will provide crucial insights for policy-makers, analysts and stakeholders navigating the intricate dynamics of the EU and its external relations.