Undergoing climate change, how safe the wintering habitats of Eurasian vultures would remain: habitat modelling study in northern India

Abstract

Vultures are an indispensable part of a healthy and balanced ecosystem. Vultures migrate from breeding to wintering grounds to access resources which are otherwise unavailable. Despite the possible effect of climate change, their wintering habitat is not sufficiently studied. We studied wintering habitats of two Eurasian vultures—Griffon Vulture (Gyps fulvus; EGV) and Cinereous Vulture (Aegypius monachus; EBV) in northern India. Habitat distribution model (Maxent) and global circulation models (CCSM4, HadGEM2AO, MIROC5) were used to predict current and future (RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 for 2050 and 2070) habitats of both the species. We identified influential habitat variables to determine current and future habitat suitability and suggested appropriate conservation measures. Model prediction showed that mean temperature of the driest quarter and precipitation of the wettest month were the two major influential variables with highest contribution, though landcover also played an important role. Suitable area expanse for EBV (12%) was smaller than EGV (38%) in the available 240,928 km². The predictive suitability map showed the dynamics of suitable and unsuitable habitats indicating range expansion (3–16%) and contraction (1–6%). Their shift was multidirectional occurring towards the Northwest, East, Southwest and Southeast. Across the scenario, impact of climate change was positive (net gain in suitable area) in most of the cases. The findings show that the Tarai districts need improvement in habitat management to provide safe roosting and foraging sites for Eurasian vultures with a large migratory pattern.