Weather-related disasters and inflation in the euro area

IF 3.6 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Journal of Banking & Finance Pub Date : 2024-08-30 DOI:10.1016/j.jbankfin.2024.107298

John Beirne , Yannis Dafermos , Alexander Kriwoluzky , Nuobu Renzhi , Ulrich Volz , Jana Wittich

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Abstract

This article investigates the impact of weather-related disasters on inflation in the euro area over the period 1996–2021. Using a panel structural vector autoregression approach, we explore whether weather-related disasters have a significant and persistent effect on inflation, as well as the role that demand-side and supply-side channels play as drivers of inflation. We also analyse the heterogeneous effects of inflation on different product categories. Our results suggest that weather-related disasters have a positive, non-persistent effect on inflation. This reflects the prevalence of negative supply shock channels and positive demand shock channels over negative demand shock channels. We also find that weather-related disasters have more pronounced effects on the inflation of product categories that represent a higher proportion of the spending of low-income households, implying that disasters reinforce inflation inequality. Overall, our results suggest that, as the climate crisis deepens, it might become increasingly challenging for the European Central Bank to control inflation and its inequality effects.

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欧元区与天气有关的灾害和通货膨胀

本文研究了 1996-2021 年间与天气有关的灾害对欧元区通货膨胀的影响。利用面板结构向量自回归方法，我们探讨了与天气有关的灾害是否会对通货膨胀产生显著且持续的影响，以及需求方和供应方渠道在通货膨胀中扮演的驱动角色。我们还分析了通货膨胀对不同产品类别的异质性影响。我们的结果表明，与天气有关的灾害对通货膨胀有积极的、非持续性的影响。这反映出负供给冲击渠道和正需求冲击渠道比负需求冲击渠道更为普遍。我们还发现，与天气相关的灾害对占低收入家庭支出比例较高的产品类别的通胀影响更为明显，这意味着灾害加剧了通胀不平等。总之，我们的研究结果表明，随着气候危机的加深，欧洲中央银行控制通货膨胀及其不平等效应的难度可能会越来越大。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Journal of Banking & Finance Multiple-

CiteScore

6.40

自引率

5.40%

发文量

262

期刊介绍： The Journal of Banking and Finance (JBF) publishes theoretical and empirical research papers spanning all the major research fields in finance and banking. The aim of the Journal of Banking and Finance is to provide an outlet for the increasing flow of scholarly research concerning financial institutions and the money and capital markets within which they function. The Journal''s emphasis is on theoretical developments and their implementation, empirical, applied, and policy-oriented research in banking and other domestic and international financial institutions and markets. The Journal''s purpose is to improve communications between, and within, the academic and other research communities and policymakers and operational decision makers at financial institutions - private and public, national and international, and their regulators. The Journal is one of the largest Finance journals, with approximately 1500 new submissions per year, mainly in the following areas: Asset Management; Asset Pricing; Banking (Efficiency, Regulation, Risk Management, Solvency); Behavioural Finance; Capital Structure; Corporate Finance; Corporate Governance; Derivative Pricing and Hedging; Distribution Forecasting with Financial Applications; Entrepreneurial Finance; Empirical Finance; Financial Economics; Financial Markets (Alternative, Bonds, Currency, Commodity, Derivatives, Equity, Energy, Real Estate); FinTech; Fund Management; General Equilibrium Models; High-Frequency Trading; Intermediation; International Finance; Hedge Funds; Investments; Liquidity; Market Efficiency; Market Microstructure; Mergers and Acquisitions; Networks; Performance Analysis; Political Risk; Portfolio Optimization; Regulation of Financial Markets and Institutions; Risk Management and Analysis; Systemic Risk; Term Structure Models; Venture Capital.