Present and future distribution of the deep-sea habitat-forming sponge - Pheronema carpenteri (Thomson, 1869) in a changing ocean

IF 2.3 3区 地球科学 Q2 OCEANOGRAPHY
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Abstract

Sponges play vital roles in the ecosystem function of the deep sea. Some species, such as the birds' nest sponge Pheronema carpenteri, can form highly structured and dense habitats (i.e., aggregations), which contribute to the increase of nearby biodiversity. Climate change is expected to have a pronounced impact on the deep sea, particularly on Vulnerable Marine Ecosystems such as those formed by the glass sponge Pheronema carpenteri. These ecosystems are especially vulnerable to climate change and other anthropogenic activities since they are formed by sensitive species with slow growth rates and limited dispersal capability, which can hinder their adaptive capability and recovery after disturbance. The impact that climate change will have on Pheronema carpenteri remains unclear, although it is expected to influence the species' available suitable habitat and distribution range. The aim of this study was to predict the distribution of the glass sponge Pheronema carpenteri both for present day and under several future climate scenarios in the North Atlantic. An ensemble modelling approach was employed, combining Maximum Entropy, Generalized Additive Models and Random Forest techniques. Changes in available suitable habitat were projected to present day and to three future climatic scenarios (RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5). Depth, temperature and dissolved oxygen were identified as the key predictor variables of habitat suitability, which patterns suggest a strong influence of the Mediterranean Outflow Water in shaping the present day distribution of the species, particularly in the eastern North Atlantic. Our results indicate a potential expansion of available suitable habitat in the northernmost region of the study area, with a contraction at lower latitudes, more prominent in the Portuguese archipelago of the Azores. Under the worst-case scenario (RCP 8.5), the area of suitable habitat will likely double compared to present, occupying approximately 6% of the total study area. The management and conservation of areas where Pheronema aggregations can occur should be articulated between different countries, particularly in the Northeast Atlantic since, cumulatively, most of Pheronema's climate refugia occurs within their EEZs. Nonetheless, a significant proportion of the species' climate refugia is located in areas within the High Seas (i.e., Rockall plateau).

深海生境形成海绵--Pheronema carpenteri(Thomson,1869 年)在不断变化的海洋中目前和未来的分布情况
海绵在深海生态系统功能中发挥着重要作用。一些物种,如鸟巢海绵 Pheronema carpenteri,可以形成高度结构化和密集的栖息地(即聚集地),有助于增加附近的生物多样性。气候变化预计将对深海产生明显影响,特别是对脆弱海洋生态系统,如玻璃海绵 Pheronema carpenteri 形成的生态系统。这些生态系统特别容易受到气候变化和其他人为活动的影响,因为它们是由生长速度缓慢、扩散能力有限的敏感物种形成的,这可能会阻碍它们的适应能力和受干扰后的恢复能力。尽管气候变化预计会影响鲤鱼草(Pheronema carpenteri)可利用的适宜栖息地和分布范围,但气候变化对鲤鱼草(Pheronema carpenteri)的影响仍不明确。本研究的目的是预测玻璃海绵 Pheronema carpenteri 在现在和未来几种气候情景下在北大西洋的分布情况。研究采用了集合建模方法,结合了最大熵、广义加性模型和随机森林技术。预测了现今和未来三种气候情景(RCP 2.6、RCP 4.5 和 RCP 8.5)下可用适宜生境的变化。深度、温度和溶解氧被确定为栖息地适宜性的关键预测变量,这些模式表明地中海外流水域在塑造该物种当今分布方面具有强大的影响力,尤其是在北大西洋东部。我们的研究结果表明,在研究区域的最北端,可用的适宜栖息地可能会扩大,而在低纬度地区则会缩小,这在葡萄牙亚速尔群岛更为突出。在最坏的情况下(RCP 8.5),适宜栖息地的面积可能会比现在增加一倍,约占研究区域总面积的 6%。不同国家(尤其是东北大西洋国家)之间应协调好对 Pheronema 聚集区域的管理和保护,因为 Pheronema 的大部分气候庇护所都位于这些国家的专属经济区内。然而,该物种气候避难所的很大一部分位于公海(即罗卡尔高原)。
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来源期刊
CiteScore
4.60
自引率
4.20%
发文量
144
审稿时长
18.3 weeks
期刊介绍: Deep-Sea Research Part I: Oceanographic Research Papers is devoted to the publication of the results of original scientific research, including theoretical work of evident oceanographic applicability; and the solution of instrumental or methodological problems with evidence of successful use. The journal is distinguished by its interdisciplinary nature and its breadth, covering the geological, physical, chemical and biological aspects of the ocean and its boundaries with the sea floor and the atmosphere. In addition to regular "Research Papers" and "Instruments and Methods" papers, briefer communications may be published as "Notes". Supplemental matter, such as extensive data tables or graphs and multimedia content, may be published as electronic appendices.
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