Utility of combining frailty and comorbid disease indices in predicting outcomes following craniotomy for adult primary brain tumors: A mixed-effects model analysis using the nationwide readmissions database

Abstract

Objective

The escalating healthcare expenditures in the United States, particularly in neurosurgery, necessitate effective tools for predicting patient outcomes and optimizing resource allocation. This study explores the utility of combining frailty and comorbidity indices, specifically the Johns Hopkins Adjusted Clinical Groups (JHACG) frailty index and the Elixhauser Comorbidity Index (ECI), in predicting hospital length of stay (LOS), non-routine discharge, and one-year readmission in patients undergoing craniotomy for benign and malignant primary brain tumors.

Methods

Leveraging the Nationwide Readmissions Database (NRD) for 2016–2019, we analyzed data from 645 patients with benign and 30,991 with malignant tumors. Frailty, ECI, and frailty + ECI were assessed as predictors using generalized linear mixed-effects models. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves evaluated predictive performance.

Results

Patients in the benign tumor cohort had a mean LOS of 8.1 ± 15.1 days, and frailty + ECI outperformed frailty alone in predicting non-routine discharge (AUC 0.829 vs. 0.820, p = 0.035). The malignant tumor cohort patients had a mean LOS of 7.9 ± 9.1 days. In this cohort, frailty + ECI (AUC 0.821) outperformed both frailty (AUC 0.744, p < 0.0001) and ECI alone (AUC 0.809, p < 0.0001) in predicting hospital LOS. Frailty + ECI (AUC 0.831) also proved superior to frailty (AUC 0.809, p < 0.0001) and ECI alone (AUC 0.827, p < 0.0001) in predicting non-routine discharge location for patients with malignant tumors. All indices performed comparably to one another as a predictor of readmission in both cohorts.

Conclusion

This study highlights the synergistic predictive capacity of frailty + ECI, especially in malignant tumor cases, and further suggests that comorbid diseases may greatly influence perioperative outcomes more than frailty. Enhanced risk assessment could aid clinical decision-making, patient counseling, and resource allocation, ultimately optimizing patient outcomes.