How will passengers make the joint choice of departure time, trip-chaining, and travel mode under disruption of metro service?

IF 5.1 2区 工程技术 Q1 TRANSPORTATION
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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Understanding passengers’ behaviour during metro disruption can help operators adopt remedial strategies. Passengers will re-plan the departure time, trip-chaining, and travel modes upon getting disruption information. Previous literature has limited research on this behaviour. Hence, we conducted a two-week survey during the COVID-19 pandemic, collecting 3,400 samples to analyze the joint choice behaviour of passengers in Chongqing, China, regarding departure time, trip-chaining, and travel modes. The 12 Cross-Nested Logit (CNL) models were established to explore the passengers’ joint choice behaviour in 12 different disruption scenarios. Analysis results reveal that on weekdays, passengers tend to choose immediate departure, simple trip-chaining, and bridging buses. On weekends and holidays, passengers prefer immediate departure when the disruption duration is less than 60 min. Whereas when the disruption duration exceeds 60 min, passengers are more inclined to postpone departure time, which suggests that operators need to pay more attention to the potential risk of an increased number of hindered passengers in these scenarios. The CNL structure analysis shows that the nest-specific coefficient for “trip-chaining” is the smallest in the weekday scenarios, indicating a high correlation between simple trip-chaining and complex trip-chaining. The results also imply that when exogenous variables change, passengers primarily adjust their departure times and travel modes. Notably, in the 12 models, the frequency of travel cost and waiting time being significant variables is higher than that of transfer counts, indicating that passengers are more sensitive to travel cost and waiting time. And elasticity analysis also shows that passengers are more sensitive to the waiting time for bridging buses. This study can help planners adopt effective strategies to maintain the reliability and sustainability of transportation systems.

在地铁服务中断的情况下,乘客将如何共同选择出发时间、行程衔接和出行方式?
了解乘客在地铁中断期间的行为有助于运营商采取补救策略。乘客在获得中断信息后会重新规划出发时间、行程衔接和出行方式。以往文献对这种行为的研究有限。因此,我们在 COVID-19 大流行期间进行了为期两周的调查,收集了 3,400 个样本,分析了中国重庆乘客在出发时间、行程衔接和出行方式方面的共同选择行为。建立了 12 个交叉嵌套 Logit(CNL)模型,以探讨乘客在 12 种不同干扰情景下的共同选择行为。分析结果显示,在工作日,乘客倾向于选择立即发车、简单的行程衔接和搭桥巴士。在周末和节假日,当中断时间少于 60 分钟时,乘客倾向于选择立即发车。而当中断时间超过 60 分钟时,乘客更倾向于推迟发车时间,这表明运营商需要更加关注在这些情况下受阻乘客数量增加的潜在风险。CNL 结构分析表明,在工作日情景下,"行程连锁 "的特定巢系数最小,表明简单行程连锁与复杂行程连锁之间存在高度相关性。结果还表明,当外生变量发生变化时,乘客主要会调整出发时间和出行方式。值得注意的是,在 12 个模型中,旅行成本和等待时间成为显著变量的频率高于换乘次数,表明乘客对旅行成本和等待时间更为敏感。弹性分析也表明,乘客对衔接巴士的候车时间更为敏感。这项研究有助于规划者采取有效策略,以保持交通系统的可靠性和可持续性。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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来源期刊
CiteScore
9.80
自引率
7.70%
发文量
109
期刊介绍: Travel Behaviour and Society is an interdisciplinary journal publishing high-quality original papers which report leading edge research in theories, methodologies and applications concerning transportation issues and challenges which involve the social and spatial dimensions. In particular, it provides a discussion forum for major research in travel behaviour, transportation infrastructure, transportation and environmental issues, mobility and social sustainability, transportation geographic information systems (TGIS), transportation and quality of life, transportation data collection and analysis, etc.
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