Tuberculosis in Aceh Province, Indonesia: a spatial epidemiological study covering the period 2019-2021.

Abstract

The purpose of this study was to determine whether there were any TB clusters in Aceh Province, Indonesia and their temporal distribution during the period of 2019-2021. A spatial geo-reference was conducted to 290 sub-districts coordinates by geocoding each sub-district's offices. By using SaTScan TM v9.4.4, a retrospective space-time scan statistics analysis based on population data and annual TB incidence was carried out. To determine the regions at high risk of TB, data from 1 January 2019 to 31 December 2021 were evaluated using the Poisson model. The likelihood ratio (LLR) value was utilized to locate the TB clusters based on a total of 999 permutations were performed. A Moran's I analysis (using GeoDa) was chosen for a study of both local and global spatial autocorrelation. The threshold for significance was fixed at 0.05. At the sub-district level, the spatial distribution of TB in Aceh Province from 2019-2021 showed 19 clusters (three most likely and 16 secondary ones), and there was a spatial autocorrelation of TB. The findings can be used to provide thorough knowledge on the spatial pattern of TB occurrence, which is important for designing effective TB interventions.