Does the spatial distribution of afforestation by government and farmers in Beijing follow a random pattern?

Abstract

The forestland expansion is the joint efforts by various behavioral actors, and among them governments and farmers play a more important role in it. However, their afforestation behaviors haven't be together investigated. Examining Beijing metropolitan area, this research distinguishes between government-led (GA) and farmer-led (FA) afforestation on arable land, and analyzes their spatial characteristics and the influencing factors using Ordinary Least Squares and Geographically Weighted Regression models. Our findings show: (1) Spatial distributions of GA and FA are non-random and systematically organized. GA dominates both in the areas close to the central city and at the outermost edge of the metropolitan area. FA leads in intermediate zones between GA dominant areas. (2) Both GA and FA are rational strategies for land allocation. GA in areas close to the central city is regarded as a trade-off between public benefits of afforestation and potential loss of fiscal revenue, while GA at the metropolitan area's outermost edge prioritizes ecological gains and lower land costs. FA, however, is driven by maximizing household welfare amidst the challenges brought by rural exodus and a rapid aging society. The findings deepen the existing investigations and provide a guidance for spatially organizing GA and synthetically regulating FA.