Effects of sampling effort and data sources on precision of common carp and bigmouth buffalo population estimates

Abstract

Biologists often manage abundant invasive Common Carp (Cyprinus carpio) populations for suppression below population density or biomass thresholds via commercial harvest that also removes large numbers of native Bigmouth Buffalo (Ictiobus cyprinellus). Thus, biologists need population estimates to monitor abundance but often avoid them due to the time and effort required to produce population estimates and pervading estimate imprecision. While population abundance of these fishes can be challenging to estimate, commercial fishers harvest large numbers of fish that could improve population estimates with less effort from biologists. Yet, how population estimates from fishery-dependent and fishery-independent data sources compare is unknown. We compared the precision of Schnabel fishery-independent (electrofishing) and Lincoln-Petersen fishery-dependent (commercial harvest) population estimates for Common Carp and Bigmouth Buffalo in seven northwest Iowa lakes. We then assessed how sampling effort and environmental factors affected the number of fish recaptured by electrofishing and how the number of fish marked and recaptured affected estimate variability. Lincoln-Petersen estimates were more precise and provided similar abundance estimates compared with Schnabel estimates for Bigmouth Buffalo, while both models provided comparable population estimates and precision for Common Carp. Common Carp electrofishing recaptures were positively related to electrofishing effort, number of fish tagged, lake size, and water temperature. Bigmouth Buffalo recaptures were positively related to number of fish tagged and negatively related to lake area and water temperature. Coefficient of variation for fishery-dependent estimates declined with number of fish tagged and recaptured; 750 Common Carp and 150 Bigmouth Buffalo needed to be marked at large to obtain precision of CV ≤ 0.25. Our results suggest Lincoln-Petersen estimates with fishery-dependent data represent an improvement over fishery-independent estimates for Bigmouth Buffalo while both techniques provided comparable estimates for Common Carp. Incorporating harvest data into population estimates can reduce sampling effort while improving or maintaining precision.