Retrospective validation study of a machine learning-based software for empirical and organism-targeted antibiotic therapy selection.

Abstract

Errors in antibiotic prescriptions are frequent, often resulting from the inadequate coverage of the infection-causative microorganism. The efficacy of iAST, a machine-learning-based software offering empirical and organism-targeted antibiotic recommendations, was assessed. The study was conducted in a 12-hospital Spanish institution. After model fine-tuning with 27,531 historical antibiograms, 325 consecutive patients with acute infections were selected for retrospective validation. The primary endpoint was comparing each of the top three of iAST's antibiotic recommendations' success rates (confirmed by antibiogram results) with the antibiotic prescribed by the physicians. Secondary endpoints included examining the same hypothesis within specific study population subgroups and assessing antibiotic stewardship by comparing the percentage of antibiotics recommended that belonged to different World Health Organization AWaRe groups within each arm of the study. All of iAST first three recommendations were non-inferior to doctor prescription in the primary endpoint analysis population as well as the secondary endpoint. The overall success rate of doctors' empirical treatment was 68.93%, while that of the first three iAST options was 91.06% (P < 0.001), 90.63% (P < 0.001), and 91.06% (P < 001), respectively. For organism-targeted therapy, the doctor's overall success rate was 84.16%, and that of the first three ranked iAST options was 97.83% (P < 0.001), 94.09% (P < 0.001), and 91.30% (P < 0.001), respectively. In empirical therapy, compared to physician prescriptions, iAST demonstrated a greater propensity to recommend access antibiotics, fewer watch antibiotics, and higher reserve antibiotics. In organism-targeted therapy, iAST advised a higher utilization of access antibiotics. The present study demonstrates iAST accuracy in predicting antibiotic susceptibility, showcasing its potential to promote effective antibiotic stewardship.

Clinical trials: This study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov as NCT06174519.