Stephanie M Rutledge, Rohit Nathani, Brooke E Wyatt, Erin Eschbach, Parth Trivedi, Stanley Kerznerman, Lily Chu, Thomas D Schiano, Leona Kim-Schluger, Sander Florman, Gene Y Im
{"title":"Age added to MELD or ACLF predicts survival in patients with alcohol-associated hepatitis declined for liver transplantation.","authors":"Stephanie M Rutledge, Rohit Nathani, Brooke E Wyatt, Erin Eschbach, Parth Trivedi, Stanley Kerznerman, Lily Chu, Thomas D Schiano, Leona Kim-Schluger, Sander Florman, Gene Y Im","doi":"10.1097/HC9.0000000000000514","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong>Severe alcohol-associated hepatitis (AH) that is nonresponsive to corticosteroids is associated with high mortality, particularly with concomitant acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF). Most patients will not be candidates for liver transplantation (LT) and their outcomes are largely unknown. Our aim was to determine the outcomes of these declined candidates and to derive practical prediction models for transplant-free survival applicable at the time of the waitlist decision.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>We analyzed a database of patients with severe AH who were hospitalized at a LT center from January 2012 to July 2021, using the National Death Index for those lacking follow-up. Clinical variables were analyzed based on the endpoints of mortality at 30, 60, 90, and 180 days. Logistic and Cox regression analyses were used for model derivation.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>Over 9.5 years, 206 patients with severe AH were declined for LT, mostly for unfavorable psychosocial profiles, with a mean MELD of 33 (±8), and 61% with ACLF. Over a median follow-up of 521 (17.5-1368) days, 58% (119/206) died at a median of 21 (9-124) days. Of 32 variables, only age added prognostic value to MELD and ACLF grade. CLIF-C ACLF score and 2 new models, MELD-Age and ACLF-Age, had similar predictability (AUROC: 0.73, 0.73, 0.72, respectively), outperforming Lille and Maddrey's (AUROC: 0.63, 0.62). In internal cross-validation, the average AUROC was 0.74. ACLF grade ≥2, MELD score >35, and age >45 years were useful cutoffs for predicting increased 90-day mortality from waitlist decision. Only two patients initially declined for LT for AH subsequently underwent LT (1%).</p><p><strong>Conclusions: </strong>Patients with severe AH declined for LT have high short-term mortality and rare rates of subsequent LT. Age added to MELD or ACLF grade enhances survival prediction at the time of waitlist decision in patients with severe AH declined for LT.</p>","PeriodicalId":12978,"journal":{"name":"Hepatology Communications","volume":"8 9","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.6000,"publicationDate":"2024-08-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11340926/pdf/","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Hepatology Communications","FirstCategoryId":"3","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1097/HC9.0000000000000514","RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"2024/9/1 0:00:00","PubModel":"eCollection","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"GASTROENTEROLOGY & HEPATOLOGY","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
Background: Severe alcohol-associated hepatitis (AH) that is nonresponsive to corticosteroids is associated with high mortality, particularly with concomitant acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF). Most patients will not be candidates for liver transplantation (LT) and their outcomes are largely unknown. Our aim was to determine the outcomes of these declined candidates and to derive practical prediction models for transplant-free survival applicable at the time of the waitlist decision.
Methods: We analyzed a database of patients with severe AH who were hospitalized at a LT center from January 2012 to July 2021, using the National Death Index for those lacking follow-up. Clinical variables were analyzed based on the endpoints of mortality at 30, 60, 90, and 180 days. Logistic and Cox regression analyses were used for model derivation.
Results: Over 9.5 years, 206 patients with severe AH were declined for LT, mostly for unfavorable psychosocial profiles, with a mean MELD of 33 (±8), and 61% with ACLF. Over a median follow-up of 521 (17.5-1368) days, 58% (119/206) died at a median of 21 (9-124) days. Of 32 variables, only age added prognostic value to MELD and ACLF grade. CLIF-C ACLF score and 2 new models, MELD-Age and ACLF-Age, had similar predictability (AUROC: 0.73, 0.73, 0.72, respectively), outperforming Lille and Maddrey's (AUROC: 0.63, 0.62). In internal cross-validation, the average AUROC was 0.74. ACLF grade ≥2, MELD score >35, and age >45 years were useful cutoffs for predicting increased 90-day mortality from waitlist decision. Only two patients initially declined for LT for AH subsequently underwent LT (1%).
Conclusions: Patients with severe AH declined for LT have high short-term mortality and rare rates of subsequent LT. Age added to MELD or ACLF grade enhances survival prediction at the time of waitlist decision in patients with severe AH declined for LT.
期刊介绍:
Hepatology Communications is a peer-reviewed, online-only, open access journal for fast dissemination of high quality basic, translational, and clinical research in hepatology. Hepatology Communications maintains high standard and rigorous peer review. Because of its open access nature, authors retain the copyright to their works, all articles are immediately available and free to read and share, and it is fully compliant with funder and institutional mandates. The journal is committed to fast publication and author satisfaction.