Identification of Climatic Refuges of Mouflon Under Future Climate in Central Iranian Protected Areas

Abstract

Habitat destruction is one of the biggest threats to wildlife populations. Climate change may exacerbate the impacts of habitat destruction and alter the distribution of species. We projected the impact of climate change on the distribution of mouflon (Ovis gmelini) in central Iran in 2055 and 2085, evaluated the efficiency of protected areas for protecting this species, and identified potential climatic refugia for this species. We analyzed presence data of mouflon according to climate and topographic factors and generated an ensemble model of habitat suitability based on nine species distribution models. In the modeling process, the most important uncorrelated variables were chosen. Using circuit theory, potential connectivity between habitat patches was estimated. To assess the impact of climate change on the study area in 2055 and 2085, two shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs), SSP 2.6 and SSP 8.5, were used based on the global circulation models. Based on the climatic suitability model, approximately 34.11% of protected areas were recognized as suitable habitats for mouflon. In the forecasted climate conditions, approximately 3.30% of suitable habitats would become unsuitable and approximately 9.36% of the current protected areas will lose their efficiency in supporting this species. In addition, climate change may reduce habitat connectivity for mouflon in the future. We conclude that the development of the network of protected areas and attention to habitat connectivity are necessary for the future migration and survival of this species; therefore, conservation planning should consider the future potential of protected/unprotected areas in supporting mouflon populations.