A machine learning technology for addressing medication-related risk in older, multimorbid patients.

Abstract

Objectives: To evaluate the FeelBetter machine learning system's ability to accurately identify older patients with multimorbidity at Brigham and Women's Hospital at highest risk of medication-associated emergency department (ED) visits and hospitalizations, and to assess the system's ability to provide accurate medication recommendations for these patients.

Study design: Retrospective cohort study.

Methods: The system uses medications, demographics, diagnoses, laboratory results, health care utilization patterns, and costs to stratify patients' risk of ED visits and hospitalizations. Patients were assigned 1 of 22 risk levels based on their system-generated risk percentile of either ED visits or hospitalizations. Logistic regression models were used to estimate the odds of ED visits and hospitalizations associated with each successive risk level compared with the 45th to 50th percentiles. After stratification, 100 high-risk (95th-100th percentiles) and 100 medium-risk (45th-55th percentiles) patients were randomly selected for generation of medication recommendations. Two clinical pharmacists reviewed the system-generated medication recommendations for these patients.

Results: Logistic regression models predicting 3-month utilization showed that compared with the 45th to 50th percentiles, patients in the top 1% risk percentile had ORs of 7.9 and 17.3 for ED visits and hospitalizations, respectively. The first 5 high-priority medications on each patient's medication list were associated with a mean (SD) of 6.65 (4.09) warnings. Of 1290 warnings reviewed, 1151 (89.2%) were assessed as correct.

Conclusions: The FeelBetter system effectively stratifies older patients with multimorbidity at risk of ED use and hospitalizations. Medication recommendations provided by the system are largely accurate and can potentially be beneficial for patient care.