Structured neural networks for CPUE standardization: A case study of the blue endeavour prawn in Australia's Northern Prawn Fishery

Abstract

We performed a study on standardizing the catch per unit effort (CPUE) for blue endeavour prawns (Metapenaeus endeavouri) caught in the Northern Prawn Fishery (NPF), one of Australia’s largest and most valuable prawn fisheries. Blue endeavour prawns constitute a significant proportion of the total NPF catches. However, there have been very limited studies on their population dynamics. This study assessed the effectiveness of Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) for CPUE standardization, with a focus on blue endeavour prawns as a case study. Our approach involved developing new ANN models for CPUE standardization with two key ideas: using an architecture inspired by the catch equation to mitigate overfitting; and using the Tweedie distribution to manage uncertainties and zero counts in the catch data. Specifically, we grouped variables into three distinct modules based on the catch equation, with each representing catchability, fishing effort, and fish density, respectively. Parameter estimation for our ANNs was achieved by maximizing the likelihood using a coordinate descent approach, which alternates between optimizing the Tweedie distribution parameters (power and dispersion) and the standard neural net parameters. We conducted a comprehensive comparison among ANNs, generalized linear models, and generalized additive models. The findings suggest that customizing ANN structure improves model fitting and effectively mitigates the risk of overfitting. It also reveals a promising path for the application of neural networks in CPUE standardization.