Evaluating the long-term influence of climate change on rainfall erosivity in the Jhelum Catchment: a GCM-based analysis

IF 4.7 3区环境科学与生态学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Environment, Development and Sustainability Pub Date : 2024-08-05 DOI:10.1007/s10668-024-05286-x

Shahid Ul Islam, Sumedha Chakma

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Abstract

This study aims to assess the long-term impacts of climate change on rainfall erosivity in the Jhelum Catchment, India. The primary research question addresses the temporal variation in erosivity under different Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) scenarios, employing General Circulation Models (GCM) from the CMIP6 phase. Six GCMs, including ACCESS-CM2, CanESM5, INM-CM5-0, IPSL-CM6A-LR, MPI-ESM1-2-HR, and MPI-ESM1-2-LR, were utilized to analyze rainfall erosivity. The study explores the correlation between erosivity and climate change by incorporating SSP scenarios (SSP245 and SSP585) over the period 2020 to 2090. The methodology involves a detailed examination of model correlations and statistical precision. The study reveals a progressive rise in Rainfall Erosivity (R) values, indicating heightened susceptibility to soil erosion from 2020 to 2090. Notably, IPSL-CM6A-LR and MPI-ESM1-2-HR models exhibit positive correlations with IMD precipitation, establishing their suitability for analyzing climate change effects in the Jhelum Catchment. The average R value increases from 798.804 (MJ-mm/ha/h/yr) in 2020 to projected values of 1551.57 by 2090 under SSP585, highlighting the substantial impact of climate change on erosivity. The results underscores the urgency of addressing climate-induced soil erosion in the Jhelum Catchment. The implications extend beyond local contexts, providing valuable insights for global climate change resilience. By enhancing our understanding of erosivity dynamics, this research contributes to interdisciplinary efforts and calls for proactive measures in sustainable land management and environmental policy.

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评估气候变化对杰赫勒姆流域降雨侵蚀性的长期影响：基于大气环流模型的分析

本研究旨在评估气候变化对印度杰赫勒姆流域降雨侵蚀性的长期影响。主要研究问题是利用 CMIP6 阶段的大气环流模型（GCM），探讨不同共享社会经济路径（SSP）情景下侵蚀率的时间变化。研究利用了六个 GCM，包括 ACCESS-CM2、CanESM5、INM-CM5-0、IPSL-CM6A-LR、MPI-ESM1-2-HR 和 MPI-ESM1-2-LR，来分析降雨侵蚀率。研究通过纳入 2020 年至 2090 年期间的 SSP 情景（SSP245 和 SSP585），探讨了侵蚀率与气候变化之间的相关性。研究方法包括对模型相关性和统计精度进行详细检查。研究显示，降雨侵蚀率（R）值逐渐上升，表明 2020 年至 2090 年期间土壤侵蚀的易感性增加。值得注意的是，IPSL-CM6A-LR 和 MPI-ESM1-2-HR 模型与 IMD 降水量呈正相关，这证明它们适合分析杰赫勒姆流域的气候变化影响。在 SSP585 模式下，平均 R 值从 2020 年的 798.804（兆焦耳-毫米/公顷/小时/年）增加到 2090 年的 1551.57（兆焦耳-毫米/公顷/小时/年），凸显了气候变化对侵蚀性的巨大影响。这些结果凸显了解决杰赫勒姆流域由气候引起的土壤侵蚀问题的紧迫性。其影响超出了当地范围，为全球抵御气候变化提供了宝贵的见解。通过加强我们对侵蚀动态的了解，这项研究为跨学科工作做出了贡献，并呼吁在可持续土地管理和环境政策方面采取积极措施。

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来源期刊

Environment, Development and Sustainability Economics, Econometrics and Finance-Economics and Econometrics

CiteScore

10.20

自引率

6.10%

发文量

754

期刊介绍： Environment, Development and Sustainability is an international and multidisciplinary journal covering all aspects of the environmental impacts of socio-economic development. It is also concerned with the complex interactions which occur between development and environment, and its purpose is to seek ways and means for achieving sustainability in all human activities aimed at such development. The subject matter of the journal includes the following and related issues: -mutual interactions among society, development and environment, and their implications for sustainable development -technical, economic, ethical and philosophical aspects of sustainable development -global sustainability - the obstacles and ways in which they could be overcome -local and regional sustainability initiatives, their practical implementation, and relevance for use in a wider context -development and application of indicators of sustainability -development, verification, implementation and monitoring of policies for sustainable development -sustainable use of land, water, energy and biological resources in development -impacts of agriculture and forestry activities on soil and aquatic ecosystems and biodiversity -effects of energy use and global climate change on development and sustainability -impacts of population growth and human activities on food and other essential resources for development -role of national and international agencies, and of international aid and trade arrangements in sustainable development -social and cultural contexts of sustainable development -role of education and public awareness in sustainable development -role of political and economic instruments in sustainable development -shortcomings of sustainable development and its alternatives.