Kendra Johnson, Thomas Chartier, Marco Pagani, Yesica Perez, Vladimir Guzmán, Maria Betania Roque de Medina, Richard Styron, Catalina Yepes-Estrada
{"title":"Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis for the Dominican Republic","authors":"Kendra Johnson, Thomas Chartier, Marco Pagani, Yesica Perez, Vladimir Guzmán, Maria Betania Roque de Medina, Richard Styron, Catalina Yepes-Estrada","doi":"10.1177/87552930241263618","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"The Dominican Republic experiences moderate to high seismic hazard mostly caused by oblique convergence at the Caribbean/North American plate boundary that manifests as subduction zones, less-pronounced subduction-like trenches with thrust faulting, long strike-slip faults parallel to the plate boundary, and onshore deformation. Historical earthquakes have damaged the Dominican Republic’s large cities and those in neighboring Haiti, once requiring relocation. Given this, the Dominican Republic joined the “Training and Communication for Earthquake Risk Assessment” (TREQ) project funded by the United States Agency for International Development, which aimed to increase earthquake risk assessment capacity in Latin American cities. The TREQ project was the basis for developing an openly available probabilistic seismic hazard model for the Dominican Republic. The input model was developed from two main datasets: a homogenized earthquake catalog and an active faults database that combines results of recent local projects with a global database. The seismic source characterization used these to constrain source geometries and occurrence rates for active shallow crustal earthquakes, subduction interfaces and subduction-like thrusts, and intraslab earthquakes. Shallow crustal earthquakes, including those on subduction-like thrusts, are modeled by smoothed seismicity and fault sources, the latter using pre-defined geometries that permit multi-fault ruptures. Seismicity on the Puerto Rico Trench subduction interface is modeled as a fault source, while intraslab sources use pre-defined gridded ruptures inside the intraslab volume. The source characterization applies epistemic uncertainties to modeling assumptions affecting occurrence rates and maximum magnitudes. The ground motion characterization used residual analyses from past regional projects as a basis, updating some components with more recent ground motion models. Computed hazard results reinforce those from recent studies in terms of geographical hazard patterns and levels. For 475-year return periods, peak ground acceleration (PGA) in Santiago de los Caballeros reaches 0.50 g, controlled by the Septentrional Fault, while all tectonic region types contribute to the PGA 0.31 g computed for Santo Domingo.","PeriodicalId":11392,"journal":{"name":"Earthquake Spectra","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.1000,"publicationDate":"2024-08-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Earthquake Spectra","FirstCategoryId":"5","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1177/87552930241263618","RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"ENGINEERING, CIVIL","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
The Dominican Republic experiences moderate to high seismic hazard mostly caused by oblique convergence at the Caribbean/North American plate boundary that manifests as subduction zones, less-pronounced subduction-like trenches with thrust faulting, long strike-slip faults parallel to the plate boundary, and onshore deformation. Historical earthquakes have damaged the Dominican Republic’s large cities and those in neighboring Haiti, once requiring relocation. Given this, the Dominican Republic joined the “Training and Communication for Earthquake Risk Assessment” (TREQ) project funded by the United States Agency for International Development, which aimed to increase earthquake risk assessment capacity in Latin American cities. The TREQ project was the basis for developing an openly available probabilistic seismic hazard model for the Dominican Republic. The input model was developed from two main datasets: a homogenized earthquake catalog and an active faults database that combines results of recent local projects with a global database. The seismic source characterization used these to constrain source geometries and occurrence rates for active shallow crustal earthquakes, subduction interfaces and subduction-like thrusts, and intraslab earthquakes. Shallow crustal earthquakes, including those on subduction-like thrusts, are modeled by smoothed seismicity and fault sources, the latter using pre-defined geometries that permit multi-fault ruptures. Seismicity on the Puerto Rico Trench subduction interface is modeled as a fault source, while intraslab sources use pre-defined gridded ruptures inside the intraslab volume. The source characterization applies epistemic uncertainties to modeling assumptions affecting occurrence rates and maximum magnitudes. The ground motion characterization used residual analyses from past regional projects as a basis, updating some components with more recent ground motion models. Computed hazard results reinforce those from recent studies in terms of geographical hazard patterns and levels. For 475-year return periods, peak ground acceleration (PGA) in Santiago de los Caballeros reaches 0.50 g, controlled by the Septentrional Fault, while all tectonic region types contribute to the PGA 0.31 g computed for Santo Domingo.
期刊介绍:
Earthquake Spectra, the professional peer-reviewed journal of the Earthquake Engineering Research Institute (EERI), serves as the publication of record for the development of earthquake engineering practice, earthquake codes and regulations, earthquake public policy, and earthquake investigation reports. The journal is published quarterly in both printed and online editions in February, May, August, and November, with additional special edition issues.
EERI established Earthquake Spectra with the purpose of improving the practice of earthquake hazards mitigation, preparedness, and recovery — serving the informational needs of the diverse professionals engaged in earthquake risk reduction: civil, geotechnical, mechanical, and structural engineers; geologists, seismologists, and other earth scientists; architects and city planners; public officials; social scientists; and researchers.