Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis for the Dominican Republic

IF 3.1 2区 工程技术 Q2 ENGINEERING, CIVIL
Kendra Johnson, Thomas Chartier, Marco Pagani, Yesica Perez, Vladimir Guzmán, Maria Betania Roque de Medina, Richard Styron, Catalina Yepes-Estrada
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引用次数: 0

Abstract

The Dominican Republic experiences moderate to high seismic hazard mostly caused by oblique convergence at the Caribbean/North American plate boundary that manifests as subduction zones, less-pronounced subduction-like trenches with thrust faulting, long strike-slip faults parallel to the plate boundary, and onshore deformation. Historical earthquakes have damaged the Dominican Republic’s large cities and those in neighboring Haiti, once requiring relocation. Given this, the Dominican Republic joined the “Training and Communication for Earthquake Risk Assessment” (TREQ) project funded by the United States Agency for International Development, which aimed to increase earthquake risk assessment capacity in Latin American cities. The TREQ project was the basis for developing an openly available probabilistic seismic hazard model for the Dominican Republic. The input model was developed from two main datasets: a homogenized earthquake catalog and an active faults database that combines results of recent local projects with a global database. The seismic source characterization used these to constrain source geometries and occurrence rates for active shallow crustal earthquakes, subduction interfaces and subduction-like thrusts, and intraslab earthquakes. Shallow crustal earthquakes, including those on subduction-like thrusts, are modeled by smoothed seismicity and fault sources, the latter using pre-defined geometries that permit multi-fault ruptures. Seismicity on the Puerto Rico Trench subduction interface is modeled as a fault source, while intraslab sources use pre-defined gridded ruptures inside the intraslab volume. The source characterization applies epistemic uncertainties to modeling assumptions affecting occurrence rates and maximum magnitudes. The ground motion characterization used residual analyses from past regional projects as a basis, updating some components with more recent ground motion models. Computed hazard results reinforce those from recent studies in terms of geographical hazard patterns and levels. For 475-year return periods, peak ground acceleration (PGA) in Santiago de los Caballeros reaches 0.50 g, controlled by the Septentrional Fault, while all tectonic region types contribute to the PGA 0.31 g computed for Santo Domingo.
多米尼加共和国地震灾害概率分析
多米尼加共和国的地震危害程度为中度到高度,主要是由于加勒比/北美板块边界的斜向辐合造成的,表现为俯冲带、不太明显的带有推力断层的类似俯冲的海沟、与板块边界平行的长走向滑动断层以及陆上变形。历史上的地震破坏了多米尼加共和国的大城市和邻国海地的城市,一度需要搬迁。有鉴于此,多米尼加共和国加入了由美国国际开发署资助的 "地震风险评估培训与交流"(TREQ)项目,该项目旨在提高拉丁美洲城市的地震风险评估能力。TREQ 项目是为多米尼加共和国开发公开可用的地震危险概率模型的基础。输入模型是在两个主要数据集的基础上开发的:一个同质化地震目录和一个活动断层数据库,后者结合了近期地方项目的成果和全球数据库。震源特征描述利用这些数据来确定震源几何形状和活动浅层地壳地震、俯冲界面和类俯冲推力以及岩床内地震的发生率。浅层地壳地震,包括类俯冲推力上的地震,是通过平滑地震和断层震源建模的,后者使用允许多断层破裂的预定义几何形状。波多黎各海沟俯冲界面上的地震被建模为断层源,而内部岩层源则使用内部岩层体积内预先定义的网格破裂。震源特征描述对影响发生率和最大震级的建模假设应用了认识上的不确定性。地动特征描述以过去区域项目的残余分析为基础,用最新的地动模型更新了某些部分。计算出的危害结果在地理危害模式和程度方面加强了近期研究的结果。在重现期为 475 年的情况下,圣地亚哥德洛斯卡瓦列罗斯的峰值地面加速度(PGA)达到 0.50 克,由 Septentrional 断层控制,而圣多明各的峰值地面加速度(PGA)为 0.31 克,是所有构造地区类型造成的。
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来源期刊
Earthquake Spectra
Earthquake Spectra 工程技术-工程:地质
CiteScore
8.40
自引率
12.00%
发文量
88
审稿时长
6-12 weeks
期刊介绍: Earthquake Spectra, the professional peer-reviewed journal of the Earthquake Engineering Research Institute (EERI), serves as the publication of record for the development of earthquake engineering practice, earthquake codes and regulations, earthquake public policy, and earthquake investigation reports. The journal is published quarterly in both printed and online editions in February, May, August, and November, with additional special edition issues. EERI established Earthquake Spectra with the purpose of improving the practice of earthquake hazards mitigation, preparedness, and recovery — serving the informational needs of the diverse professionals engaged in earthquake risk reduction: civil, geotechnical, mechanical, and structural engineers; geologists, seismologists, and other earth scientists; architects and city planners; public officials; social scientists; and researchers.
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