Spatial and temporal evolution of forestry ecological security level in China

Abstract

The grade evaluation of forestry ecological security helps to comprehensively improve the stability and service function of forest ecosystems, and plays a crucial role in the process of realizing the high-quality development of industries as well as the goal of ecological civilization construction. Based on the Pressure-State-Impact-Response (PSIR) model and the Lotka-Volterra symbiosis model, we constructed a forestry ecological security evaluation index system and analyzed the symbiotic relationship between forestry industry and forest ecology in 31 Chinese provinces (municipalities and autonomous regions) from 2010 to 2021, to provide policy enlightenment for realizing the goal of ecological civilization construction. The results showed that: (1) The forestry industry level index I(t) increased from 0.0503 to 0.7866, the forest ecological index E(t) increased from 0.1544 to 0.8229, and the environmental capacity C(t) increased from 0.1863 to 0.6372 from 2010 to 2021, and all three were in fluctuating upward. (2) The study period showed a dynamic change process of “Safety - Deterioration - Risk - Safety - Risk - Safety - Sensitivity” level. The relationship between industry gaining and ecological damage were shown. (3) There were great spatial differences in forestry ecological safety level among provinces, among which the forestry ecological safety level in western and northern provinces was better than that in eastern and southern provinces, and the areas with forestry ecological safety hazards were gradually concentrated in the eastern and central regions. Under the influence of multiple factors, such as forest natural resource endowment, forestry industry development direction, and economic and social development level, the overall coordinated sustainability of China’s forestry ecological security has risen, but the heterogeneity of the provincial areas is obvious. Therefore, differentiated strategies and policies are necessary to improve the forestry ecological security level.