Socially vulnerable U.S. Pacific Northwest communities are more likely to experience wildfires

Caitlyn Reilley, Christopher J. Dunn, Mindy S. Crandall, Jeffrey D. Kline
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Abstract

Quantitative wildfire risk assessments increasingly are used to prioritize areas for investments in wildfire risk mitigation actions. However, current assessments of wildfire risk derived from fire models built primarily on biophysical data do not account for socioeconomic contexts that influence community vulnerability to wildfire. Research indicates that despite accounting for only a small proportion of high wildfire hazard areas, communities with fewer socioeconomic resources to devote to wildfire prevention and response may experience outsized exposure and impacts. We examined the distribution of simulated wildfire risk versus observed wildfire experience relative to social vulnerability across communities in the Pacific Northwest region of the United States (U.S.). Using three decades of wildfire occurrence data, we investigated whether socially vulnerable communities were more likely to experience ignitions, fires that escaped initial attack (hereafter “escaped fires”) (>121 hectares), and large fires (>404 hectares), reasoning that each may reveal key insights into the effectiveness of current wildfire risk mitigation and response efforts. We found that communities located in areas with higher wildfire risk or hazard tended to have lower social vulnerability, but that across landscapes east of the Cascade Range, communities with higher social vulnerability were more likely to be exposed to ignitions, escaped fires, and large fires. Our results draw into question whether the current reliance on biophysical data in wildfire risk assessments, absent consideration of community socioeconomic conditions, may perpetuate social inequities by leading to over-investment in well-resourced communities and under-investment in socially vulnerable communities subject to disproportionate wildfire exposure.
美国西北太平洋地区的社会弱势群体更容易遭受野火袭击
定量野火风险评估越来越多地被用于确定投资野火风险缓解行动的优先区域。然而,目前的野火风险评估主要基于生物物理数据建立的火灾模型,并没有考虑到影响社区野火脆弱性的社会经济背景。研究表明,尽管只占野火高危地区的一小部分,但社会经济资源较少的社区在野火预防和应对方面的风险和影响可能会更大。我们研究了美国西北太平洋地区各社区相对于社会脆弱性的模拟野火风险与观测野火经验的分布情况。利用三十年的野火发生数据,我们调查了社会弱势社区是否更有可能发生点火、逃离初期攻击的火灾(以下简称 "逃离火灾")(>121 公顷)和大火(>404 公顷),理由是每种火灾都可能揭示当前野火风险缓解和应对工作有效性的关键信息。我们发现,位于野火风险或危害较高地区的社区往往具有较低的社会脆弱性,但在喀斯喀特山脉以东的地貌中,社会脆弱性较高的社区更有可能受到点火、逃火和大火的影响。我们的研究结果提出了一个问题:目前在野火风险评估中依赖生物物理数据,而不考虑社区的社会经济条件,是否会导致对资源丰富的社区投资过多,而对社会脆弱性较高的社区投资过少,使野火风险不成比例,从而使社会不公平现象长期存在。
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