Characterising ignition precursors associated with high levels of deployment of wildland fire personnel

IF 2.9 3区 农林科学 Q1 FORESTRY
Alison C. Cullen, Brian R. Goldgeier, Erin Belval, John T. Abatzoglou
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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Background

As fire seasons in the Western US intensify and lengthen, fire managers have been grappling with increases in simultaneous, significant incidents that compete for response resources and strain capacity of the current system.

Aims

To address this challenge, we explore a key research question: what precursors are associated with ignitions that evolve into incidents requiring high levels of response personnel?

Methods

We develop statistical models linking human, fire weather and fuels related factors with cumulative and peak personnel deployed.

Key results

Our analysis generates statistically significant models for personnel deployment based on precursors observable at the time and place of ignition.

Conclusions

We find that significant precursors for fire suppression resource deployment are location, fire weather, canopy cover, Wildland–Urban Interface category, and history of past fire. These results align partially with, but are distinct from, results of earlier research modelling expenditures related to suppression which include precursors such as total burned area which become observable only after an incident.

Implications

Understanding factors associated with both the natural system and the human system of decision-making that accompany high deployment fires supports holistic risk management given increasing simultaneity of ignitions and competition for resources for both fuel treatment and wildfire response.

确定与大量部署野外消防人员有关的点火前兆的特征
背景随着美国西部火灾季节的加剧和延长,火灾管理者一直在努力解决同时发生的重大事件增多的问题,这些事件会争夺响应资源,并使当前系统的能力不堪重负。目的为了应对这一挑战,我们探讨了一个关键的研究问题:哪些前兆与演变成需要大量响应人员的事件的点火有关?方法我们建立了统计模型,将人类、火灾天气和燃料相关因素与累计和峰值人员部署联系起来。主要结果我们的分析根据点火时间和地点可观察到的前兆,为人员部署建立了具有统计意义的模型。结论我们发现,灭火资源部署的重要前兆是地点、火灾天气、树冠覆盖、荒地-城市界面类别以及过去的火灾历史。这些结果与早先的灭火支出建模研究结果部分吻合,但又有所不同,因为早先的灭火支出建模研究包括总烧毁面积等前兆因素,而这些因素只有在事件发生后才能观察到。意义了解伴随着高部署火灾的自然系统和人类决策系统的相关因素有助于进行全面的风险管理,因为同时发生的火灾越来越多,而且燃料处理和野火响应都需要争夺资源。
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来源期刊
CiteScore
5.50
自引率
9.70%
发文量
67
审稿时长
12-24 weeks
期刊介绍: International Journal of Wildland Fire publishes new and significant articles that advance basic and applied research concerning wildland fire. Published papers aim to assist in the understanding of the basic principles of fire as a process, its ecological impact at the stand level and the landscape level, modelling fire and its effects, as well as presenting information on how to effectively and efficiently manage fire. The journal has an international perspective, since wildland fire plays a major social, economic and ecological role around the globe. The International Journal of Wildland Fire is published on behalf of the International Association of Wildland Fire.
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