Alison C. Cullen, Brian R. Goldgeier, Erin Belval, John T. Abatzoglou
{"title":"Characterising ignition precursors associated with high levels of deployment of wildland fire personnel","authors":"Alison C. Cullen, Brian R. Goldgeier, Erin Belval, John T. Abatzoglou","doi":"10.1071/wf23182","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<strong> Background</strong><p>As fire seasons in the Western US intensify and lengthen, fire managers have been grappling with increases in simultaneous, significant incidents that compete for response resources and strain capacity of the current system.</p><strong> Aims</strong><p>To address this challenge, we explore a key research question: what precursors are associated with ignitions that evolve into incidents requiring high levels of response personnel?</p><strong> Methods</strong><p>We develop statistical models linking human, fire weather and fuels related factors with cumulative and peak personnel deployed.</p><strong> Key results</strong><p>Our analysis generates statistically significant models for personnel deployment based on precursors observable at the time and place of ignition.</p><strong> Conclusions</strong><p>We find that significant precursors for fire suppression resource deployment are location, fire weather, canopy cover, Wildland–Urban Interface category, and history of past fire. These results align partially with, but are distinct from, results of earlier research modelling expenditures related to suppression which include precursors such as total burned area which become observable only after an incident.</p><strong> Implications</strong><p>Understanding factors associated with both the natural system and the human system of decision-making that accompany high deployment fires supports holistic risk management given increasing simultaneity of ignitions and competition for resources for both fuel treatment and wildfire response.</p>","PeriodicalId":14464,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Wildland Fire","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.9000,"publicationDate":"2024-07-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"International Journal of Wildland Fire","FirstCategoryId":"97","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1071/wf23182","RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"FORESTRY","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
Background
As fire seasons in the Western US intensify and lengthen, fire managers have been grappling with increases in simultaneous, significant incidents that compete for response resources and strain capacity of the current system.
Aims
To address this challenge, we explore a key research question: what precursors are associated with ignitions that evolve into incidents requiring high levels of response personnel?
Methods
We develop statistical models linking human, fire weather and fuels related factors with cumulative and peak personnel deployed.
Key results
Our analysis generates statistically significant models for personnel deployment based on precursors observable at the time and place of ignition.
Conclusions
We find that significant precursors for fire suppression resource deployment are location, fire weather, canopy cover, Wildland–Urban Interface category, and history of past fire. These results align partially with, but are distinct from, results of earlier research modelling expenditures related to suppression which include precursors such as total burned area which become observable only after an incident.
Implications
Understanding factors associated with both the natural system and the human system of decision-making that accompany high deployment fires supports holistic risk management given increasing simultaneity of ignitions and competition for resources for both fuel treatment and wildfire response.
期刊介绍:
International Journal of Wildland Fire publishes new and significant articles that advance basic and applied research concerning wildland fire. Published papers aim to assist in the understanding of the basic principles of fire as a process, its ecological impact at the stand level and the landscape level, modelling fire and its effects, as well as presenting information on how to effectively and efficiently manage fire. The journal has an international perspective, since wildland fire plays a major social, economic and ecological role around the globe.
The International Journal of Wildland Fire is published on behalf of the International Association of Wildland Fire.