Day-Ahead Prediction of PV Power Output: A One-Year Case Study at Changwon in South Korea

IF 1.6 4区 工程技术 Q3 ENGINEERING, ELECTRICAL & ELECTRONIC
Wanbin Son, Ye-Rim Lee
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引用次数: 0

Abstract

This paper is a one-year case study of day-ahead prediction of PV output at Changwon in South Korea. We are focused on day-ahead hourly PV power forecasting and long-term experiments in this paper. We introduce three machine learning based forecasting methods that predict hourly PV power for the next day at midnight, and show performance of them for a 51 kW PV system located at Changwon for a year. Our methods learn relationship of historical meteorological factors, and then predict 24 h PV power considering the trained relationship and weather forecasts from weather forecasting organizations. We show monthly performance of all the proposed methods and a persistence model for a year. Since South Korea is located in a temperate zone with four distinct seasons, and has complex climate characteristics, it is difficult to show actual performance of PV forecasting methods by short-term experimental results. We believe that long term experimental results in this paper are valuable data for the next studies.

Abstract Image

光伏发电量的日前预测:韩国昌原一年期案例研究
本文是一项为期一年的韩国昌原光伏发电量日前预测案例研究。本文重点关注日前每小时光伏发电量预测和长期实验。我们介绍了三种基于机器学习的预测方法,这些方法可预测次日午夜的每小时光伏发电量,并展示了这些方法在昌原 51 kW 光伏系统中一年的性能表现。我们的方法学习历史气象因素的关系,然后根据训练的关系和气象预报机构的天气预报预测 24 小时的光伏发电量。我们展示了所有建议方法和一个持续模型一年的月度性能。由于韩国地处温带,四季分明,气候特征复杂,因此很难通过短期实验结果显示光伏预测方法的实际性能。我们相信,本文的长期实验结果将为下一步研究提供宝贵数据。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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来源期刊
Journal of Electrical Engineering & Technology
Journal of Electrical Engineering & Technology ENGINEERING, ELECTRICAL & ELECTRONIC-
CiteScore
4.00
自引率
15.80%
发文量
321
审稿时长
3.8 months
期刊介绍: ournal of Electrical Engineering and Technology (JEET), which is the official publication of the Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers (KIEE) being published bimonthly, released the first issue in March 2006.The journal is open to submission from scholars and experts in the wide areas of electrical engineering technologies. The scope of the journal includes all issues in the field of Electrical Engineering and Technology. Included are techniques for electrical power engineering, electrical machinery and energy conversion systems, electrophysics and applications, information and controls.
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