Dynamic Seismic Probabilistic Risk Assessment of Nuclear Power Plants Using Advanced Structural Methodologies

Abstract

The conditional core damage probability (CCDP) of a representative nuclear power plant is estimated for a beyond design basis earthquake (BDBE) using state-of-the-art structural models within a dynamic probabilistic risk assessment (DPRA) framework. Randomness of seismic excitation and uncertainty of structural parameters are considered using a simulation-based approach. Finite element models are developed for the structure and a liquid container (hydro-accumulator), and fluid–structure interaction is considered with the arbitrary Lagrangian-Eulerian method. The CCDP is evaluated through a time-dependent event tree. Also, correlation among multiple hydro-accumulators is investigated. The results show that operator action and implementation time of mobile safety equipment are critical under BDBE in case of loss of offsite power following an earthquake. It was also found necessary to adopt a DPRA approach to determine the available time for action and core damage timing probabilistically.