AI-Powered Energy algorithmic Trading: Integrating Hidden Markov Models with Neural Networks

Abstract

In the field of quantitative finance, machine learning methods have become essential for alpha generation. This paper presents a pioneering method that uniquely combines Hidden Markov Models (HMM) and neural networks, creating a dual-model alpha generation system integrated with Black-Litterman portfolio optimization. The methodology, implemented on the QuantConnect platform, aims to predict future price movements and optimize trading strategies. Specifically, it filters for highly liquid, top-cap energy stocks to ensure stable and predictable performance while also accounting for broker payments. QuantConnect was selected because of its robust framework and to guarantee experimental reproducibility. The algorithm achieved a 31% return between June 1, 2023, and January 1, 2024, with a Sharpe ratio of 1.669, demonstrating its potential. The findings suggest significant improvements in trading strategy performance through the combined use of the HMM and neural networks. This study explores the architecture of the algorithm, data pre-processing techniques, model training procedures, and performance evaluation, highlighting its practical applicability and effectiveness in real-world trading environments. The full code and backtesting data are available under the MIT license.