Grain Price Fluctuation: A Network Evolution Approach Based on a Distributed Lag Model

Abstract

Due to the continuous worldwide conflicts, the prices of corn and wheat have fluctuated greatly in recent years, which has led countries to focus more on concerns related to food security. In order to study the dynamic characteristics and evolution law of price volatility in the international grain futures market and improve the price linkage trend of grain identification. This study builds a directed weighted network of corn and wheat futures prices based on the distributed lag model and examines the linkage relationship between corn and wheat futures prices. We discover that most of the price linkages between corn and wheat futures between 2013 and 2023 form some significant and relatively consistent relationship patterns. Through the analysis of complex network, it has been discovered that the prices of corn and wheat futures are relatively stable over time and that the frequent occurrence of high centrality nodes has a regular pattern that is directly related to the fundamental conditions of the global market. Our results are useful in determining the trend of change in the linkage impact of agricultural product prices, which is crucial for enhancing the safety of grain futures.