Assessment of rehabilitation strategies for lakes affected by anthropogenic and climatic changes: A case study of the Urmia Lake, Iran

IF 2.7 3区 环境科学与生态学 Q3 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
Seyed Morteza Mousavi, Hossein Babazadeh, Mahdi Sarai-Tabrizi, Amir Khosrojerdi
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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Over the last three decades, more than half of the world’s large lakes and wetlands have experienced significant shrinkage, primarily due to climate change and extensive water consumption for agriculture and other human needs. The desiccation of lakes leads to severe environmental, economic, and social repercussions. Urmia Lake, located in northwestern Iran and representing a vital natural ecosystem, has experienced a volume reduction of over 90.0%. Our research evaluated diverse water management strategies within the Urmia Lake basin and prospects of inter-basin water transfers. This study focused on strategies to safeguard the environmental water rights of the Urmia Lake by utilizing the modeling and simulating (MODSIM) model. The model simulated changes in the lake’s water volume under various scenarios. These included diverting water from incoming rivers, cutting agricultural water use by 40.0%, releasing dam water in non-agricultural seasons, treated wastewater utilization, and inter-basin transfers. Analytical hierarchy process (AHP) was utilized to analyze the simulation results. Expert opinions with AHP analysis, acted as a multi-criteria decision-making tool to evaluate the simulation and determine the optimal water supply source priority for the Urmia Lake. Our findings underscore the critical importance of reducing agricultural water consumption as the foremost step in preserving the lake. Following this, inter-basin water transfers are suggested, with a detailed consideration of the inherent challenges and limitations faced by the source watersheds. It is imperative to conduct assessments on the impacts of these transfers on the downstream users and the potential environmental risks, advocating for a diplomatic and cooperative approach with adjacent country. This study also aims to forecast the volumes of water that can be transferred under different climatic conditions—drought, normal, and wet years—to inform strategic water management planning for the Urmia Lake. According to our projection, implementing the strategic scenarios outlined could significantly augment the lake’s level and volume, potentially by 3.57×109–9.38×109 m3 over the coming 10 a and 3.57×109–10.70×109 m3 in the subsequent 15 a.

评估受人为因素和气候变化影响的湖泊的恢复战略:伊朗乌尔米耶湖案例研究
在过去的三十年里,世界上一半以上的大型湖泊和湿地都经历了显著的萎缩,这主要是由于气候变化和农业及其他人类需求的大量用水造成的。湖泊干涸导致了严重的环境、经济和社会影响。乌尔米耶湖位于伊朗西北部,是一个重要的自然生态系统,其水量减少了 90.0%以上。我们的研究评估了乌尔米耶湖流域内的各种水管理战略以及流域间调水的前景。这项研究的重点是利用建模和模拟(MODSIM)模型,制定保障乌尔米耶湖环境水权的战略。该模型模拟了各种情况下湖泊水量的变化。这些方案包括从入湖河流引水、减少 40.0% 的农业用水、在非农业季节释放大坝水、废水处理利用和流域间调水。利用层次分析法(AHP)对模拟结果进行了分析。专家意见与 AHP 分析相结合,作为一种多标准决策工具,对模拟结果进行评估,并确定乌尔米耶湖的最佳供水水源优先次序。我们的研究结果强调了减少农业用水量作为保护湖泊首要步骤的极端重要性。随后,我们提出了跨流域调水建议,并详细考虑了水源流域所面临的固有挑战和限制。必须对这些调水对下游用户的影响和潜在的环境风险进行评估,倡导与邻国采取外交和合作的方式。本研究还旨在预测在不同气候条件下--干旱、正常和多雨年份--可调用的水量,为乌尔米耶湖水资源管理战略规划提供参考。根据我们的预测,实施所概述的战略方案可显著增加湖泊的水位和水量,在未来 10 年内可能增加 3.57×109-9.38×109 立方米,在随后的 15 年内可能增加 3.57×109-10.70×109 立方米。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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来源期刊
Journal of Arid Land
Journal of Arid Land ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES-
CiteScore
4.70
自引率
6.70%
发文量
768
审稿时长
3.2 months
期刊介绍: The Journal of Arid Land is an international peer-reviewed journal co-sponsored by Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, the Chinese Academy of Sciences and Science Press. It aims to meet the needs of researchers, students and practitioners in sustainable development and eco-environmental management, focusing on the arid and semi-arid lands in Central Asia and the world at large. The Journal covers such topics as the dynamics of natural resources (including water, soil and land, organism and climate), the security and sustainable development of natural resources, and the environment and the ecology in arid and semi-arid lands, especially in Central Asia. Coverage also includes interactions between the atmosphere, hydrosphere, biosphere, and lithosphere, and the relationship between these natural processes and human activities. Also discussed are patterns of geography, ecology and environment; ecological improvement and environmental protection; and regional responses and feedback mechanisms to global change. The Journal of Arid Land also presents reviews, brief communications, trends and book reviews of work on these topics.
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