Quantifying future climate extreme indices: implications for sustainable urban development in West Africa, with a focus on the greater Accra region.

IF 2.4 Q3 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
Discover Sustainability Pub Date : 2024-01-01 Epub Date: 2024-07-29 DOI:10.1007/s43621-024-00352-w
Ebenezer Kwadwo Siabi, Edward Abingya Awafo, Amos Tiereyangn Kabobah, Nana Sarfo Agyeman Derkyi, Komlavi Akpoti, Geophrey Kwame Anornu, Mashael Yazdanie
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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Climate change leading to Climate extremes in the twenty-first century is more evident in megacities across the world, especially in West Africa. The Greater Accra region is one of the most populated regions in West Africa. As a result, the region has become more susceptible to climate extremes such as floods, heatwaves, and droughts. The study employed the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 models in simulating climate extreme indices under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway scenarios (SSPs) over West Africa between 1979 and 2059 as exemplified by the Greater Accra region. The study observed a generally weak drought in the historical period and expected to intensify especially under SSP585 in Greater Accra. For instance, continuous dry days (CDD) reveal an increasing trend under the SSPs. Similarly, the overall projected trend of CDD over West Africa reveals an increase signifying a more frequent and longer drought in the future. The flood indices revealed a surge in the intensity and duration of extreme precipitation events under the SSPs in the region. For instance, R99pTOT and Rx5days are expected to significantly increase under the SSPs with intensification under the SSP245, SSP370, and SSP585. A similar trend has been projected across West Africa, especially along the Guinean coast. The study foresees a gradual and intensifying rise in heatwave indices over the Greater Accra region. The warming and cooling indices reveal an increasing and decreasing trend respectively in the historical period as well as under the SSPs particularly within urban centers like Accra and Tema. Most West African countries are projected to observe more frequent warm days and nights with cold nights and days becoming less frequent. Expected effects of future climate extreme indices pose potential threats to the water, food, and energy systems as well as trigger recurrent floods and droughts over Greater Accra. The findings of the study are expected to inform climate policies and the nationally determined contribution of the Paris Agreement as well as address the sustainable development goal 11 (Sustainable cities) and 13 (Climate action) in West Africa.

量化未来气候极端指数:对西非可持续城市发展的影响,重点是大阿克拉地区。
气候变化导致二十一世纪气候极端化,这在世界各地的特大城市,尤其是西非更为明显。大阿克拉地区是西非人口最多的地区之一。因此,该地区更容易受到洪水、热浪和干旱等极端气候的影响。这项研究采用了耦合模式相互比较项目 6 模型,以大阿克拉地区为例,模拟了 1979 年至 2059 年期间西非共享社会经济路径情景下的气候极端指数。该研究观察到,历史时期的干旱普遍较弱,预计会加剧,尤其是在大阿克拉地区的 SSP585 条件下。例如,在 SSPs 条件下,连续干旱天数(CDD)呈上升趋势。同样,西非连续干旱日的总体预测趋势也显示出增加的迹象,表明未来干旱将更加频繁,持续时间更长。洪水指数显示,在该地区的 SSPs 条件下,极端降水事件的强度和持续时间都会激增。例如,在 SSPs 条件下,R99pTOT 和 Rx5days 预计将显著增加,在 SSP245、SSP370 和 SSP585 条件下将加剧。预计整个西非,特别是几内亚沿海地区也会出现类似的趋势。该研究预测,大阿克拉地区的热浪指数将逐渐上升并加剧。升温指数和降温指数分别显示出历史时期和 SSPs 下的上升和下降趋势,尤其是在阿克拉和特马等城市中心。预计大多数西非国家将出现更频繁的暖日和暖夜,而寒夜和寒天则会减少。未来极端气候指数的预期影响将对水、食品和能源系统构成潜在威胁,并引发大阿克拉地区反复出现的洪水和干旱。预计研究结果将为气候政策和《巴黎协定》的国家贡献提供信息,并解决西非的可持续发展目标 11(可持续城市)和 13(气候行动)。
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来源期刊
Discover Sustainability
Discover Sustainability sustainability research-
CiteScore
4.00
自引率
7.70%
发文量
38
审稿时长
26 days
期刊介绍: Discover Sustainability is part of the Discover journal series committed to providing a streamlined submission process, rapid review and publication, and a high level of author service at every stage. It is a multi-disciplinary, open access, community-focussed journal publishing results from across all fields relevant to sustainability research. We need more integrated approaches to social, environmental and technological systems to address some of the challenges to the sustainability of life on Earth. Discover Sustainability aims to support multi-disciplinary research and policy developments addressing all 17 of the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The journal is intended to help researchers, policy-makers and the general public understand how we can ensure the well-being of current and future generations within the limits of the natural world by sustaining planetary and human health. It will achieve this by publishing open access research from across all fields relevant to sustainability. Submissions to Discover Sustainability should seek to challenge existing orthodoxies and practices and contribute to real-world change by taking a multi-disciplinary approach. They should also provide demonstrable solutions to the challenges of sustainability, as well as concrete suggestions for practical implementation, such as how the research can be operationalised and delivered within a wide socio-technical system.
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